ReutersJun 26, 2025
US market updates: Stocks near record highs as investors bet on Fed rate cut - as it happened
US market updates: Stocks near record highs as investors bet on Fed rate cut - as it happened Reuters
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Market Performance
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Magnificent 7 shrinks below 25% of S&P 500 in 2025?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the combined weight of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google (Alphabet Class A and C), Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia) in the S&P 500 index, calculated using the official S&P 500 index weighting formula, falls below 25% on any trading day (using market close prices) by the last day of trading in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be daily closes prices applied to the weighting formula for the S&P 500.
Total Volume
$227.04K
Liquidity
$9.54K
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Current Odds
Yes
2.3%
Volume
$113.52K
Best Bid
2.0¢
Best Ask
2.6¢
No
97.7%
Volume
$113.52K
Price History
Magnificent 7 shrinks below 25% of S&P 500 in 2025?
Demo data - Connect API for real historical prices
Resolution Information
Status
Active
Expected Resolution
December 31, 2025
12:00 PM GMT+0
UMA Protocol
Markets are resolved using the UMA optimistic oracle system with community verification.
Learn moreResolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the combined weight of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google (Alphabet Class A and C), Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia) in the S&P 500 index, calculated using the official S&P 500 index weighting formula, falls below 25% on any trading day (using market close prices) by the last day of trading in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be daily closes prices applied to the weighting formula for the S&P 500.
Market Still Active
This market has not yet resolved. Resolution will occur after the specified end date based on the criteria above.
AI-Generated Analysis
Last updated: Nov 30, 2025 22:09
This market concerns Magnificent 7 shrinks below 25% of S&P 500 in 2025?. Current market sentiment suggests Yes is less likely with a 2.3% probability.
Key Factors
- Market sentiment and trader behavior
- Recent news and developments
- Historical patterns in similar events
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Discussion
Sarah Chen•2 hours ago
Really interesting market dynamics here. The recent polling data suggests a shift in sentiment that could significantly impact these odds.
12
Mike Johnson•1 hour ago
Agreed! I noticed the same trend. Do you have sources for that polling data?
3
Alex Rivera•5 hours ago
The liquidity on this market is surprisingly high. Good for getting fills without slippage.
8
Emma Davis•1 day ago
Anyone else think the YES side is undervalued right now? The fundamentals seem strong.
15
📊 Market Stats
Resolution Countdown
30 Days Left
December 31, 2025 • 12:00 PM
Last Updated
less than a minute ago
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