Event

#Definition

An Event is the real-world occurrence that a prediction market is designed to forecast. It's the fundamental unit around which markets are structured: the "thing that happens" that determines how markets resolve.

#Event vs. Market

It is important to distinguish between an Event and a Market.

• Event: The real-world occurrence (e.g., "The 2024 US Election").
• Market: The specific trading venue for a contract related to that event (e.g., "Will Trump win?").

One Event can have multiple Markets (e.g., "Will Trump win?", "Will Harris win?", "Will it go to a runoff?").

Events can range from political elections and economic indicators to sports outcomes and technological milestones.

#Event vs. Market vs. Contract

These terms are often confused:

#Event Hierarchy

Example hierarchy:

Event: "Federal Reserve December 2025 Meeting"
  ↓
Market: "Will the Fed raise rates in December 2025?"
  ↓
Outcomes:
  - YES (rates increase)
  - NO (rates stay same or decrease)

#Event Characteristics

#Well-Defined Events

Good events for prediction markets have:

1. Clear Resolution: Unambiguous when outcome is determined

   • ✅ "Winner of Super Bowl LIX"
   • ❌ "Best quarterback in 2025" (subjective)

2. Specific Timeline: Defined start and end

   • ✅ "Tesla stock price on Dec 31, 2025 at market close"
   • ❌ "Tesla reaches $500" (no deadline)

3. Verifiable Outcome: Observable by all participants

   • ✅ "Official electoral college vote count"
   • ❌ "Secret military operation success"

4. Public Interest: Enough people care to create liquidity

   • ✅ "Next president of France"
   • ❌ "Who wins my local rec league game"

#Event Types

Political Events

• Elections (presidential, congressional, local)
• Policy passage (bills, referendums)
• Appointments (cabinet members, judges)
• Geopolitical occurrences (treaties, conflicts)

Economic Events

• Interest rate decisions
• Inflation/employment data releases
• Corporate earnings
• Market indices reaching levels

Sports Events

• Championship winners
• Individual game outcomes
• Season records
• Award winners (MVP, Cy Young)

Entertainment Events

• Award shows (Oscars, Grammys, Emmys)
• Box office performance
• Streaming viewership numbers

Technology Events

• Product launches
• Platform metrics (user counts)
• Breakthrough announcements
• Regulatory decisions on tech companies

Weather & Natural Events

• Hurricane landfalls
• Temperature records
• Precipitation levels
• Natural disasters

#Event Granularity

Events can be broken down from broad to specific:

Broad Event: "2024 U.S. Elections"

↓
Mid-level: "2024 Presidential Election"
↓
Specific: "Presidential race in Pennsylvania"
↓
Granular: "Candidate A wins PA by >5 points"

More granular events generally have:

• Lower liquidity (fewer traders care)
• Higher information sensitivity (easier to gain edge)
• Clearer resolution (less ambiguity)

#Event Coverage Across Platforms

#Kalshi (CFTC-Regulated)

• Allowed: Economic indicators, elections, weather, entertainment
• Prohibited: Gaming/uncertain events per CFTC guidelines
• Focus: Events with clear, objective resolution sources

#Polymarket (Decentralized)

• Wide Range: Politics, crypto, culture, sports, entertainment
• Flexible: Can create markets on niche events
• Global: Not limited to U.S. events

#PredictIt (Research)

• Political Focus: U.S. elections and political events primarily
• Limited: Position and market limits per participant
• Research Purpose: Operated for academic study

#Event Lifecycle

1. Event Announcement/Definition
   ↓
2. Market Creation (trading opens)
   ↓
3. Event Occurs (real-world outcome)
   ↓
4. Market Closes (trading stops)
   ↓
5. Market Settles (payouts distributed)

Some events are ongoing (continuous markets):

• "Will Bitcoin reach $100k before 2026?" (resets upon occurrence)
• "Next country to join the EU" (open-ended until resolution)

#Multi-Market Events

Single events often spawn multiple related markets:

Event: "Super Bowl LIX"

Related Markets:

• Winner (Chiefs, Eagles, 49ers, etc.)
• Point spread (>7 points, 3-7 points, <3 points)
• Total score (over/under 50.5)
• MVP winner (Mahomes, Hurts, etc.)
• Halftime show performer
• Length of national anthem
• Gatorade color dumped on winning coach

#Event Risk

Traders face event risk: uncertainty specific to the event:

• Cancellation: Event doesn't occur (game postponed, election delayed)
• Ambiguity: Outcome unclear (disputed election, tie)
• Source failure: Resolution source unavailable
• Rule changes: Event conditions change after market opens
• External shocks: Unforeseen circumstances (COVID canceling sports)

#Event Selection Criteria

Platforms choose events based on:

1. Public Interest: Will people trade?
2. Verifiability: Can outcome be objectively determined?
3. Timing: Is timeline appropriate for market?
4. Legal/Ethical: Is market legally permissible and ethical?
5. Resolution Cost: Can outcome be determined at reasonable cost?

#Creating Your Own Events

Some platforms allow user-created events:

Manifold Markets: Anyone can create markets on any event (play money) Polymarket: Permissioned market creation (real money) Kalshi: No user-created markets (CFTC-regulated, curated events only)

When creating events:

• Define clear, unambiguous outcomes
• Specify objective resolution source
• Set appropriate close and resolution dates
• Provide context and background information
• Anticipate and address edge cases

#Event Creation Template

Use this structure to ensure clarity:

Title: Will [Subject] [Action/Outcome] by [Date]?

Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to "Yes" if [Source URL] reports that [Specific Metric] is greater than [X] on or before [Date].

Tiebreaker: If the result is exactly [X], the market resolves [Yes/No].

Edge Cases: If the event is cancelled, this market resolves to [N/A / No].

#Event Information Sources

Traders research events using:

• News aggregators: Google News, Twitter, specialized sites
• Polls & surveys: FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics (for elections)
• Economic calendars: Fed meetings, jobs reports, earnings dates
• Historical data: Past similar events and outcomes
• Expert analysis: Domain specialists, academics, analysts
• On-chain data: For crypto-related events

#The Role of Events in Information Aggregation

Prediction markets excel when events:

• Have distributed information (no single source has full picture)
• Attract diverse traders with different knowledge
• Offer clear incentives for truth-seeking
• Can be broken down into sub-components

Events where markets struggle:

• Inside information dominates (corporate M&A)
• Very low probability (tail risks)
• Manipulation is easy (low liquidity)
• Outcome is distant future (discount rates matter)

#Related Terms

• Event Contract
• Market
• Resolution
• Resolution Criteria
• Binary Market
• Prediction Market

#FAQ

#What makes a good prediction market event?

A good event has: clear, unambiguous resolution criteria; a defined timeline; verifiable outcomes from reliable sources; sufficient public interest to generate trading volume; and low manipulation risk. Events should be specific enough to resolve cleanly but broad enough to attract diverse traders with different information.

#Can the same event have multiple prediction markets?

Yes. A single event often generates many related markets. The Super Bowl, for example, might have markets on the winner, point spread, MVP, total score, and numerous prop bets. Different platforms may also run competing markets on the same event with different rules or fee structures.

#What happens if an event is canceled or postponed?

This depends on market rules. Well-designed markets specify handling for cancellation, typically either extending the deadline, voiding the market with refunds, or resolving based on the cancellation itself. Ambiguous cancellation rules are a common source of disputes, so always check before trading.

#How do prediction markets handle ambiguous event outcomes?

Markets should specify resolution procedures for ambiguity in advance. Common approaches include: designating a backup resolution source, using oracle systems like UMA for decentralized dispute resolution, or having platform staff make final determinations. If no procedure is specified, ambiguous outcomes may result in market invalidation.

#Why do some events have more liquid markets than others?

Liquidity depends on: public interest (major elections attract more traders than local races), information availability (events with widely distributed information enable more informed trading), time horizon (near-term events typically have better liquidity than distant ones), and platform focus (Kalshi specializes in economic events, Polymarket in politics and crypto).