Resolution Source
Definition
The Resolution Source is the stated data source used to determine the outcome (e.g., official report, election agency, oracle).
Purpose
Resolution sources provide objective, verifiable data to settle prediction markets without disputes.
Common Resolution Sources
Government Agencies
- Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, CPI)
- Federal Reserve (interest rates)
- Election Commissions (election results)
- Census Bureau (population data)
Financial Data Providers
- Bloomberg (market data)
- Reuters (commodity prices)
- Exchange APIs (stock prices, crypto prices)
Sports Organizations
- Official League Stats (game scores, player stats)
- Governing Bodies (championship winners)
News Organizations
- Associated Press (breaking news)
- Major Networks (event confirmations)
Oracles (Blockchain Markets)
- UMA Protocol (Polymarket)
- Chainlink (various platforms)
- Custom oracles (platform-specific)
Best Practices
Clarity
Resolution criteria should specify:
- Exact source: "Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly report"
- Specific metric: "Seasonally adjusted CPI-U"
- Timing: "As published on the first Friday of the month"
- Contingencies: "If delayed, use first available official release"
Reliability
Good sources are:
- Official: Government or authoritative bodies
- Timely: Published promptly after the event
- Unambiguous: Clear, objective data
- Accessible: Publicly available for verification
Examples
Well-Defined
"Will CPI exceed 3% in June 2024?"
- Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Metric: Year-over-year CPI-U (seasonally adjusted)
- Resolution: June 2024 report, typically published in July
- Link: bls.gov/cpi
Poorly Defined
"Will inflation be high in 2024?"
- ❌ No specific source
- ❌ "High" is subjective
- ❌ No specific timing
Disputes
When sources are unclear or delayed:
- Platform policies define dispute resolution
- Community voting may determine outcome (some platforms)
- Oracle mechanisms allow challenges (blockchain markets)
- Refunds may be issued for ambiguous cases