#Definition
A Tweet Market is a prediction market that resolves based on whether a specific person (often a public figure) posts certain content on Twitter/X or other social media platforms within a specified timeframe. These markets became popular due to high-profile users making newsworthy or market-moving posts.
#Examples
- "Will Elon Musk tweet 'Doge' this week?"
- "Will Trump post about Biden before midnight?"
- "Will Fed chair tweet about inflation?"
#Risks and Considerations
Tweet markets face unique challenges:
- Account hacking: What if account is compromised?
- Deleted tweets: Does a deleted tweet still count?
- Ambiguous wording: Interpretation of what counts as the specified content
- Platform changes: Account suspensions, platform outages
Due to these risks, tweet markets require very specific resolution rules about edge cases.
Full article coming soon.