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How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?

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EventKALSHI

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?

How low will the 10-year US Treasury yield get by Nov 30, 2026?
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Vol

10.7K contracts

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Markets

19

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Market snapshot: Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed.

Market Price Graph

19 markets tracked

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.84% by Nov 30, 2026?

kalshi

No data available

All Markets(19)
MarketOutcome price
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.84% by Nov 30, 2026?
Yes 7.0%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.83% by Nov 30, 2026?
Yes 5.5%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.82% by Nov 30, 2026?
Yes 5.5%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.81% by Nov 30, 2026?
Yes 4.5%
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.80% by Nov 30, 2026?
Yes 4.5%

Event Overview

By Nov 30, 2026 If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below X on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Market Resolution Rules

Important Notes

  • Markets resolve based on official data sources specified in the rules
  • Resolution may be delayed if official data is not immediately available
  • Kalshi markets are regulated by the CFTC and follow strict resolution procedures
  • Always verify the exact resolution criteria before trading
View full terms on Kalshi

Markets (19)

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KALSHIEconomics
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.84% by Nov 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.84% by Nov 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.84% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Yes outcome7.0%
Yes
Volume1.2K contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateDec 02, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.83% by Nov 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.83% by Nov 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.83% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Yes outcome5.5%
Yes
Volume645.27 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateDec 02, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.82% by Nov 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.82% by Nov 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.82% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Yes outcome5.5%
Yes
Volume1.7K contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateDec 02, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.81% by Nov 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.81% by Nov 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.81% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Yes outcome4.5%
Yes
Volume845 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateDec 02, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.80% by Nov 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.80% by Nov 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.80% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Yes outcome4.5%
Yes
Volume1.0K contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateDec 02, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.75% by Nov 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.75% by Nov 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.75% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Yes outcome3.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateDec 02, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.78% by Nov 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.78% by Nov 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.78% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Yes outcome3.5%
Yes
Volume191 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateDec 02, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.77% by Nov 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.77% by Nov 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.77% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Yes outcome3.5%
Yes
Volume200 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateDec 02, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.79% by Nov 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.79% by Nov 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.79% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Yes outcome3.5%
Yes
Volume1.1K contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateDec 02, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.76% by Nov 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.76% by Nov 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.76% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Yes outcome3.0%
Yes
Volume711 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateDec 02, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.74% by Nov 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.74% by Nov 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.74% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Yes outcome2.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateDec 02, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.70% by Nov 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.70% by Nov 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.70% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Yes outcome2.0%
Yes
Volume569.01 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateDec 02, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.71% by Nov 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.71% by Nov 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.71% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Yes outcome2.0%
Yes
Volume110.18 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateDec 02, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.72% by Nov 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.72% by Nov 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.72% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Yes outcome2.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateDec 02, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.73% by Nov 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.73% by Nov 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.73% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Yes outcome2.0%
Yes
Volume1.1K contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateDec 02, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.67% by Nov 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.67% by Nov 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.67% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Yes outcome1.5%
Yes
Volume1.1K contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateDec 02, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.68% by Nov 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.68% by Nov 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.68% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Yes outcome1.5%
Yes
Volume100.01 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateDec 02, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.69% by Nov 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.69% by Nov 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.69% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Yes outcome1.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateDec 02, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.66% by Nov 30, 2026?

Will the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.66% by Nov 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.66% on any business day between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Nov 1, 2026 and Nov 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.

Yes outcome1.0%
Yes
Volume154.01 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateDec 02, 2026
View Details

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