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PolymarketKalshiManifold

Kelly Criterion Calculator

Optimize your position sizing based on your edge.

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Overview

The Kelly Criterion Calculator helps traders determine the optimal position size to maximize long-term growth while minimizing the risk of ruin.

How it Works

Input your:

  1. Bankroll: Total funds available for trading.
  2. Win Probability: Your estimated chance of winning the bet.
  3. Odds: The payout odds offered by the market.

The calculator will output the percentage of your bankroll to wager.

[!WARNING] Full Kelly can be volatile. Many traders use "Half Kelly" or "Quarter Kelly" to reduce variance.