Skip to main content
PredictPedia
K

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026?

Trade
Event Group
EventKALSHI

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026?

How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 23, 2026?
|
Vol

0 contracts

|
Markets

20

Trade

Market snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC. Prices may have changed.

Market Price Graph

20 markets tracked

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.08% by Oct 23, 2026?

kalshi

No data available

All Markets(20)
MarketOutcome price
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.08% by Oct 23, 2026?
Yes 65.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.07% by Oct 23, 2026?
Yes 61.5%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.06% by Oct 23, 2026?
Yes 59.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.05% by Oct 23, 2026?
Yes 56.0%
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.04% by Oct 23, 2026?
Yes 52.5%

Event Overview

By Oct 23, 2026 If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below X on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Market Resolution Rules

Important Notes

  • Markets resolve based on official data sources specified in the rules
  • Resolution may be delayed if official data is not immediately available
  • Kalshi markets are regulated by the CFTC and follow strict resolution procedures
  • Always verify the exact resolution criteria before trading
View full terms on Kalshi

Markets (20)

Sort
KALSHIEconomics
CLOSING SOON
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.08% by Oct 23, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.08% by Oct 23, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 5.08% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Yes outcome65.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateOct 25, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
CLOSING SOON
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.07% by Oct 23, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.07% by Oct 23, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 5.07% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Yes outcome61.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateOct 25, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
CLOSING SOON
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.06% by Oct 23, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.06% by Oct 23, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 5.06% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Yes outcome59.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateOct 25, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
CLOSING SOON
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.05% by Oct 23, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.05% by Oct 23, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 5.05% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Yes outcome56.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateOct 25, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
CLOSING SOON
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.04% by Oct 23, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.04% by Oct 23, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 5.04% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Yes outcome52.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateOct 25, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
CLOSING SOON
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.03% by Oct 23, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.03% by Oct 23, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 5.03% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Yes outcome49.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateOct 25, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
CLOSING SOON
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.02% by Oct 23, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.02% by Oct 23, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 5.02% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Yes outcome46.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateOct 25, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
CLOSING SOON
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.01% by Oct 23, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.01% by Oct 23, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 5.01% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Yes outcome43.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateOct 25, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
CLOSING SOON
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.00% by Oct 23, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.00% by Oct 23, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 5.00% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Yes outcome41.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateOct 25, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
CLOSING SOON
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.99% by Oct 23, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.99% by Oct 23, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.99% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Yes outcome39.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateOct 25, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
CLOSING SOON
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.98% by Oct 23, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.98% by Oct 23, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.98% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Yes outcome37.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateOct 25, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
CLOSING SOON
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.97% by Oct 23, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.97% by Oct 23, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.97% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Yes outcome35.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateOct 25, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
CLOSING SOON
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.96% by Oct 23, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.96% by Oct 23, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.96% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Yes outcome34.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateOct 25, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
CLOSING SOON
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.95% by Oct 23, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.95% by Oct 23, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.95% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Yes outcome32.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateOct 25, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
CLOSING SOON
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.94% by Oct 23, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.94% by Oct 23, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.94% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Yes outcome30.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateOct 25, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
CLOSING SOON
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.93% by Oct 23, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.93% by Oct 23, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.93% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Yes outcome28.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateOct 25, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
CLOSING SOON
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.92% by Oct 23, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.92% by Oct 23, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.92% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Yes outcome27.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateOct 25, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
CLOSING SOON
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.91% by Oct 23, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.91% by Oct 23, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.91% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Yes outcome25.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateOct 25, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
CLOSING SOON
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.90% by Oct 23, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.90% by Oct 23, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.90% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Yes outcome24.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateOct 25, 2026
View Details
KALSHIEconomics
CLOSING SOON
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.89% by Oct 23, 2026?

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 4.89% by Oct 23, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is below 4.89% on any business day between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 16, 2026 and Oct 23, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Yes outcome22.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateOct 25, 2026
View Details

Share This Event

Share on social media or embed on your website

Back to Event Group