Will US wage growth exceed 3.7% by July 2027?

any reference month from August 2026 through July 2027 If BLS reports that the 12-month percent change in average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls for any reference month from August 2026 through July 2027, inclusive, is strictly above 3.7%, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will use the 12-month percent change reported by BLS in the Employment Situation release for series CES0500000003. Settlement is based on the value initially reported for that reference