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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026?

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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026?

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026?
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30.03 contracts

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10

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Market snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC. Prices may have changed.

Market Price Graph

10 markets tracked

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.2)

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All Markets(10)
MarketOutcome price
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.2)
Yes 91.5%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.4)
Yes 78.0%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.6)
Yes 62.5%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.8)
Yes 46.0%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.0)
Yes 32.0%

Event Overview

Worldwide on Oct 18, 2026 If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 18, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is X or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude, Mw, and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Market Resolution Rules

Important Notes

  • Markets resolve based on official data sources specified in the rules
  • Resolution may be delayed if official data is not immediately available
  • Kalshi markets are regulated by the CFTC and follow strict resolution procedures
  • Always verify the exact resolution criteria before trading
View full terms on Kalshi

Markets (10)

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KALSHIClimate
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.2)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.2)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 18, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Yes outcome91.5%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateNov 17, 2026
View Details
KALSHIClimate
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.4)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.4)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 18, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Yes outcome78.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateNov 17, 2026
View Details
KALSHIClimate
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.6)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.6)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 18, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.6 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Yes outcome62.5%
Yes
Volume30.03 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateNov 17, 2026
View Details
KALSHIClimate
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.8)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 5.8)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 18, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Yes outcome46.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateNov 17, 2026
View Details
KALSHIClimate
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.0)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.0)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 18, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Yes outcome32.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateNov 17, 2026
View Details
KALSHIClimate
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.2)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.2)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 18, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Yes outcome21.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateNov 17, 2026
View Details
KALSHIClimate
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.4)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.4)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 18, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Yes outcome14.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateNov 17, 2026
View Details
KALSHIClimate
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.6)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.6)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 18, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.6 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Yes outcome9.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateNov 17, 2026
View Details
KALSHIClimate
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.8)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 6.8)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 18, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Yes outcome6.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateNov 17, 2026
View Details
KALSHIClimate
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 7.0)

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 18, 2026? (Magnitude of at least 7.0)

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 18, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 7.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies. Early close condition: This market may close and expire early once USGS has reviewed and finalized all earthquakes from the Period and the highest qualifying magnitude is known.

Yes outcome5.0%
Yes
Volume0 contracts
LiquidityN/A
End DateNov 17, 2026
View Details

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