Will California home prices increase YoY in Q4 2026?

Q4 2026 If California’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only HPI for Q4 2026 is above 419.85, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the index_sa value for California (CA), year 2026, quarter 4, in the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s quarterly state Purchase-Only House Price Index dataset. This is a Q4-over-Q4 comparison, not an annual average. The 419.85 baseline is fixed to the Q4 2025 value at Issuance; later revisions to Q4 2025 do not change the strike. This market will close a