Will Chile and Bolivia agree to or announce the restoration of full diplomatic relations between them at the ambassadorial level before Jan 1, 2028?
If Chile and Bolivia agree to or announce the restoration of full diplomatic relations between them at the ambassadorial level before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A qualifying agreement or announcement is a joint decision or statement by Chile and Bolivia, or contemporaneous official statements from both governments, committing to restore diplomatic relations at the ambassadorial level, including by exchanging ambassadors. A commitment to restore full diplomatic relations, or relations at the highest diplomatic level, counts. It qualifies even if it takes effect later or names no ambassadors. An announcement that the two countries are restoring or re-establishing diplomatic relations, without stating a level, also counts unless the same announcement places the relations below ambassadorial level. Naming an ambassador, or an announcement by only one government, qualifies only if the other government also confirms it. Statements that the two countries will work or advance toward normalization without committing to restore relations at the ambassadorial level, meetings of the Mecanismo de Consultas Políticas, and relations restored only below the ambassadorial level (such as consulates general or chargés d'affaires) do not qualify. A retraction is not itself a qualifying announcement, and a retraction after a qualifying agreement does not undo it; this market closes and expires early when the agreement is made. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event described in the Payout Criterion occurs.
