Will China approve extra central government bonds of at least 1 trillion yuan?

Before Apr 1, 2027 If China agrees to or announces approval by the National People's Congress or its Standing Committee of at least 1 trillion yuan in additional central government bonds above the amount in its most recently approved annual central budget before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only a binding approval counts: a decision of the National People's Congress or its Standing Committee, including a central budget adjustment, authorizing the central government to issue additional treasury bonds, ultra-long special treasury bonds or special treasury bonds above the amount in the most recently approved annual central budget. Amounts approved after Issuance in one or more such decisions are added together, and bonds count even if their proceeds are transferred to local governments. A proposal, plan or statement of intent by the State Council or Ministry of Finance does NOT count until that approval is given. The annual central budget and bond quotas approved at the National People's Congress annual session (including in March 2027), local government bond quotas, debt limits or debt swaps, early or reallocated use of existing quotas, and policy-bank financing instruments do NOT count. This market will close and expire early if the event described in the Payout Criterion occurs.