Will France use Article 49.3 on its 2027 state budget before Jan 1, 2027?
If France agrees to or announces the use of Article 49.3 of the French Constitution to adopt, without a National Assembly vote, the 2027 state budget bill (projet de loi de finances pour 2027), in whole or in part before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Prime Minister formally engaging the Government's responsibility under Article 49, paragraph 3 of the French Constitution on the 2027 state budget bill, or the Government officially announcing that it will do so, qualifies. Engagement on any part of the bill (such as the first part, covering revenue) or at any reading (including on a joint committee text or in a new reading) qualifies. Engagement only on the 2027 social security financing bill (projet de loi de financement de la sécurité sociale) does not qualify. A motion of censure being filed, adopted or rejected afterwards does not change the result. Statements that the Government may or could use Article 49.3 do not qualify until it is engaged or officially announced. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event described in the Payout Criterion occurs.