Will anyone win the next French presidential election in the first round?
If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the next French presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to Yes if any candidate receives more than 50% of the votes cast (suffrages exprimés) in the first round of voting, so that no second round is required. Blank and null ballots are not counted. The result of any second round does not matter. The market resolves once the Conseil constitutionnel proclaims the first-round results. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if official first-round results determining whether any candidate met the threshold are announced.