Will Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries and John Thune all be reelected as their parties' leaders for the 120th Congress?
If Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries and John Thune are each elected by their party caucus or conference as its leader in their chamber for the 120th Congress after Issuance and before Jan 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency before Jan 15, 2027. All three of the following must happen for the market to resolve to Yes: The Senate Democratic Caucus elects Chuck Schumer as its leader for the 120th Congress, whether the post is styled Democratic Leader or Majority Leader The House Democratic Caucus elects Hakeem Jeffries as its leader for the 120th Congress, whether the post is styled Democratic Leader or the caucus's nominee for Speaker The Senate Republican Conference elects John Thune as its leader for the 120th Congress, whether the post is styled Republican Leader or Minority Leader An election by ballot, voice vote or acclamation counts. The three elections may happen on different dates; each must happen after Issuance and before Jan 15, 2027. The market resolves to No as soon as a Source Agency reports that the Senate Democratic Caucus, the House Democratic Caucus or the Senate Republican Conference has elected someone other than Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries or John Thune, respectively, as its leader for the 120th Congress. The following do NOT count: The House floor vote for Speaker; only the House Democratic Caucus's own leadership election counts for Hakeem Jeffries Election to any other post, such as whip A report before an election that a leader is expected to win, is unopposed or has the votes Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.