Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before Jan 1, 2027?
If Kristi Noem has either officially announced her intention to leave the Trump administration or has actually left the Trump administration after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes. "Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) satisfy the Payout Criterion even without a prior announcement. To leave the Trump administration, Kristi Noem must hold no paid or unpaid Executive Branch position, including White House, senior advisor, special envoy, ambassador and Special Government Employee roles. Leaving, or announcing she will leave, one position does NOT count if she keeps another or a new position is announced at the same time. Informal advice and roles outside the Executive Branch are not positions. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.