Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 4 percentage points?
If Mary Peltola wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Alaska by 4 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Important information: the margin shall be calculated using the results from the final round of tabulation. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Mary Peltola minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Mary Peltola if Mary Peltola wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Mary Peltola loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Mary Peltola runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Mary Peltola will be summed. If Mary Peltola wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Mary Peltola loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Mary Peltola ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Mary Peltola is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes). Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.
