Will Madison fall below 30°F from issuance through Oct 31, 2026?
If the minimum official hourly temperature reported by The Weather Company for Dane County Regional Airport (KMSN), Madison, WI, during From this market's issuance (its Market Open Time), inclusive, through November 1, 2026 at 12:59:59 AM EDT, inclusive, corresponding to the end of October 31, 2026 in America/Chicago. Observations before issuance do not count. is strictly below 30 degrees Fahrenheit, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The observation window begins at this market's issuance, defined as its Market Open Time, inclusive, and ends at November 1, 2026 at 12:59:59 AM EDT, inclusive. This cutoff is the end of October 31, 2026 at Madison, WI. This listing explicitly uses the daylight-saving-aware America/Chicago time zone. The scheduled last trading time is one minute before the final observation time, at November 1, 2026 at 12:58:59 AM EDT. Only The Weather Company's official, finalized hourly temperature observations for Dane County Regional Airport (KMSN) whose observation timestamps fall within this window count. Use the observation timestamp, not the report publication time. No observation before issuance counts, including an earlier temperature on the issuance date. Daily low values spanning hours outside the window are not used. This is the minimum over the specified issuance window, not the full calendar month. Exactly 30°F does not qualify; use TWC's full reported precision. A qualifying observation establishes Yes, subject to the filed correction and review provisions. No requires sufficient reliable observations covering the full window to establish that no qualifying value occurred. Missing or preliminary values do not establish No. If no data can be obtained from any designated Source Agency by expiration, the filed last-fair-price provision applies. If an expiration value cannot be determined, the filed Rule 7.1 contingency applies. Use the first official report or data release including the relevant observation. If the Source Agency or the Exchange retracts, corrects, or identifies that data as erroneous before expiration, use the corrected data under the filed rules. Revisions and quality-control changes after expiration are disregarded; a vendor's Final label does not prevent pre-expiration correction review. An observation reported later can count before expiration only if its observation timestamp falls inside the window. TWC is the designated Source Agency: https://weather.com/kalshi. Early close condition: The scheduled last trading time is November 1, 2026 at 12:58:59 AM EDT. If the payout criterion occurs, expiration moves earlier under Rule 7.2. The latest expiration is November 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM EST, one month after the final observation date, at 10:00 AM ET.