Will Ra'am win above 4 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
If Ra'am has won above 4 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If Ra'am runs in this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by that list will be counted. If Ra'am merges with another party before the election, all seats won by the merged party will be counted, as will any seats won by a joint candidate list the merged party runs on. Ra'am refers to the party led by Mansour Abbas at issuance. A name change alone does not change its identity. If neither Ra'am nor a qualifying joint list or merged successor contests the election, its seat count is zero. A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either: The time for legal challenges has expired Challenges have been resolved The member has taken their seat Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if all seats have been called and additional recounts/by-elections will not affect the market outcome.
