Which Democrats will underperform Kamala Harris in 2026?

Before Jan 4, 2027 If X certified vote share in the 2026 general election is lower than Kamala Harris's certified 2024 presidential vote share in their state, then the market resolves to Yes. X candidate's 2026 vote share is their share of all votes cast in the November 3, 2026 general election for the listed office, as certified by that state's official election authority, including votes received on every ballot line on which the candidate appears. Where a race uses ranked-choice tabulation o