Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?
PM $86.5K
1
20
Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?
PM $86.5K
1
20
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 26, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Google at 75.9%.
Polymarket
- Google75.9%
- Anthropic22%
- OpenAI3.1%
- Moonshot0.4%
- Meta0.3%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $86.5K
Reported volume · provider units
20
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket event asks which company will own the model with the highest arena rank on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) leaderboard when the table is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-31T16:00:00.000Z [1]. The source specifies the "Rank" column with style control off and adjustments set to none, filtered for "Models" [1]. Models marked "AutoEval" at check time are excluded, whether or not they display a rank or score [1]. Ties are broken first by Arena score and then by alphabetical company name [1]. If the leaderboard is unavailable at check time, the market stays open until it returns, and it resolves to "Other" only if the source becomes permanently unavailable [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-23T01:52:56.867Z [1]. These prices describe that earlier snapshot only. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
In the included Yes contracts, Google is priced at 0.556 and Anthropic at 0.41 [1]. OpenAI is at 0.0335, Meta at 0.0155, and the remaining included companies are priced at 0.0055 or lower [1]. Each company has its own Yes and No contract, so the two prices for a company should be read together, not compared with another company's contract [1].
This is a partial sample. Twelve of the 20 markets in this provider event are shown [1]. The selection rule ranks markets by Yes price, then volume, so the eight omitted markets are not described here, and their prices cannot be read from this table [1]. The evidence contains only one platform, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include volume, trader counts, price history, or any explanation for price levels. It also does not show the current leaderboard, so the snapshot cannot tell readers how the ranks may change before the check time. Source retrieval is not resolution, and the contract resolves only at the stated check time under the rules above [1].
References
- Polymarket: Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?. Provider data observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 23, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract is a Polymarket event titled "Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?" [1]. It resolves according to the company that owns the model with the highest rank on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) leaderboard when the table is checked on October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. The listed end time is 16:00 UTC on October 31, 2026 [1]. The rules point to the "Rank" column on the Text Arena Math leaderboard, using the version with style control off and no adjustments, filtered to show models only [1]. Models marked "AutoEval" at the check time are excluded, even if they display a rank or score [1]. If models are tied on rank, the contract orders them by Arena score, including unrounded values shown below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names, as listed in the market group, serves as the final tiebreaker. The rules give an example in which a tie on exact score would place Google ahead of SpaceXAI [1]. The rules also address a leaderboard outage. If the resolution source is unavailable at check time, the market stays open until the leaderboard returns and resolves on the first check after it becomes available. If the source becomes permanently unavailable, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The event is organized as a set of company-specific contracts, each asking whether that company will hold first place. Each contract has Yes and No outcomes. In the saved sample, the contracts with the highest Yes prices belong to Google and Anthropic, followed by much lower-priced contracts for other companies [1].
Historical Context
The Google DeepMind entry describes the laboratory as founded in the United Kingdom in 2010, acquired by Google in 2014, and merged with Google AI's Google Brain division in April 2023 to become Google DeepMind [3]. The Kimi entry says its Kimi K3, released in July 2026, is the largest open weights model at 2.8 trillion parameters [2]. These are background facts about the companies and models. They do not establish current leaderboard positions or the outcome of this contract.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which company owns the highest-ranked model on one specific leaderboard, the Text Arena (Math) table at arena.ai, at a fixed check time [1]. Its definition of the best model is therefore the rank on that table under the stated settings, not a general assessment of AI quality. The rules also specify how exclusions, ties, and outages are handled, so the result depends on those details as well as on model performance [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-23 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines the winning company?
The company that occupies first place under the leaderboard ranking at the check time. Models are ordered first by rank, then by Arena score, and then by alphabetical company name if needed [1].
Which leaderboard view does the contract use?
It uses the Text Arena (Math) leaderboard with style control off and no adjustments, filtered for models [1].
Are all models eligible?
No. Models marked AutoEval at the applicable check time are not considered, even if they show a rank or score [1].
What happens if the leaderboard is unavailable on the check date?
The market remains open until the leaderboard returns and then resolves on the first check after it becomes available. If the source becomes permanently unavailable, it resolves to Other [1].
Can the prices of companies not shown be compared with those shown?
No. The saved sample includes 12 of the 20 company markets in this event, so the omitted markets should not be read as having lower prices or as ranking below the included ones [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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