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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

MLB: Home Runs Leader

Name: MLB: Home Runs Leader
End: 2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$300.23

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

MLB: Home Runs Leader

Vol

$300.23

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $300.23

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $300.23

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

25 markets tracked

Will Shohei Ohtani hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(25)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Shohei Ohtani hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	43%
Will Ben Rice hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	20%
Will Giancarlo Stanton hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	12%
Will George Springer hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	8%
Will Cal Raleigh hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	6%
Will Elly De La Cruz hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	6%
Will Juan Soto hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	5%
Will Munetaka Murakami hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	4%
Will Shea Langeliers hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	3%
Will Manny Machado hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	3%
Will Eugenio Suarez hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	2%
Will Pete Alonso hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	2%
Will Aaron Judge hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	2%
Will Junior Caminero hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	2%
Will Nick Kurtz hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	2%
Will James Wood hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	2%
Will Brandon Lowe hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	2%
Will CJ Abrams hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	2%
Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	1%
Will Rafael Devers hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	1%
Will Matt Olson hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	1%
Will Sal Stewart hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	1%
Will Yordan Alvarez hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	1%
Will Mike Trout hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	1%
Will Jordan Walker hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

43%

Top Probability

$300.23

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher b

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** MLB: Home Runs Leader
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 28, 2026 (80 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher b

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this m"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $300
* **Total Liquidity:** $6.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.04)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Shohei Ohtani hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $21
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Cal Raleigh hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Aaron Judge hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Juan Soto hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Pete Alonso hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Rafael Devers hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Eugenio Suarez hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Giancarlo Stanton hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 12.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Junior Caminero hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Manny Machado hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Nick Kurtz hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will James Wood hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will George Springer hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $26
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Munetaka Murakami hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Mike Trout hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Jordan Walker hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Matt Olson hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Sal Stewart hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Yordan Alvarez hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Elly De La Cruz hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Ben Rice hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $121
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Brandon Lowe hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will CJ Abrams hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Shea Langeliers hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 11, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETSports