Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?

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$1.00K

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30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?

Vol

$1.00K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.00K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.00K

100%

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25 markets tracked

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 1.99% on Dec 31, 2027?

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Single-Platform Markets(25)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 1.99% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	80%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.99% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	60%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.74% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	60%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	59%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	59%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.74% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	58%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	57%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.24% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	56%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 2.99% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	54%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.74% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	50%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	50%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.49% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	50%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.24% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	50%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 2.74% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	50%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 2.49% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	50%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 2.24% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	50%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 7.74% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	47%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 7.99% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	47%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 6.74% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	46%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 6.49% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	46%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 6.99% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	45%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.99% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	44%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 6.24% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	43%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 7.49% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	41%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 7.24% on Dec 31, 2027?	Kalshi	41%

AI Analysis

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80%

Top Probability

$1.00K

Volume

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About This Event

On Dec 31, 2027 If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above X on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2027, or one week following Dec 31, 2027.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Dec 31, 2027

If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above X on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2027, or one week following Dec 31, 2027.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 7.99% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2027, or one week following Dec 31, 2027."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 7.99% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 7.74% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 7.49% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 7.24% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 6.99% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 6.74% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 6.49% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 6.24% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 42.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.99% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.74% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.49% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.24% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 56.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 57.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.74% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 58.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 59.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.99% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 59.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.74% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 59.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.49% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.24% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 2.99% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $144
  DATA: [Yes: 53.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 2.74% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $347
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 2.49% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $21
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 2.24% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $62
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 1.99% on Dec 31, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2028): Vol $428
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?

Volume$1.00K

Markets25

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KALSHI

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 1.99% on Dec 31, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 80.0¢No 20.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 1.99% on Dec 31, 2027?

If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 1.99% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2027, or one week following Dec 31, 2027.

KALSHI

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.99% on Dec 31, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 59.5¢No 40.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.99% on Dec 31, 2027?

If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 3.99% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2027, or one week following Dec 31, 2027.

KALSHI

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.74% on Dec 31, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 59.5¢No 40.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.74% on Dec 31, 2027?

If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 3.74% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2027, or one week following Dec 31, 2027.

KALSHI

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Dec 31, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 59.0¢No 41.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Dec 31, 2027?

If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.24% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2027, or one week following Dec 31, 2027.

KALSHI

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Dec 31, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 58.5¢No 41.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Dec 31, 2027?

If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.49% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Dec 31, 2027, or one week following Dec 31, 2027.

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30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?

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Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 1.99% on Dec 31, 2027?

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30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?

Markets (25)

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 1.99% on Dec 31, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 1.99% on Dec 31, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.99% on Dec 31, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.99% on Dec 31, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.74% on Dec 31, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.74% on Dec 31, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Dec 31, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Dec 31, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Dec 31, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Dec 31, 2027?

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Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 1.99% on Dec 31, 2027?

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30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 1.99% on Dec 31, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 1.99% on Dec 31, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.99% on Dec 31, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.99% on Dec 31, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.74% on Dec 31, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 3.74% on Dec 31, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Dec 31, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Dec 31, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Dec 31, 2027?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Dec 31, 2027?

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