Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T21:00:06.613Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This is a single binary contract on Polymarket titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET" [1]. Its rule states that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the excerpt states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].

The listed end time is 2026-10-28T20:40:00.000Z [1]. That end time is the contract's listed close, not the time the outcome was determined. The supplied evidence does not state an actual resolution.

Reading the snapshot

The saved observation time is 2026-10-27T21:00:06.613Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-27T21:34:35.578Z [1]. These values describe a past snapshot, not live trading. The quoted prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. Because the two outcomes sum to 1.000, the snapshot implies an approximately even split between the two directions at that moment. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.

The evidence includes one market from one provider event. Coverage shows one total market, one included, and no partial sample [1]. The volume figures and trader counts are not supplied, so this snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold each view. It also cannot be compared with other Bitcoin contracts with different windows, sources, or end times, since those would describe different questions.

What remains uncertain

The supplied evidence does not explain why the prices stood where they did, and it does not describe any news or market events around the observation. It also does not show how the TWAP compared with the starting price, so the final outcome is unknown from this record. The title's time window and the listed end time should be read together, since the window is defined in the title and the close is listed in UTC [1]. A reader who wants current prices or a resolved result would need a newer snapshot or the provider's settlement record.

References

1. Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T21:00:06.613Z.