GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

CPI core in June

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CPI core in June

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Kalshi

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11 markets tracked

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in June?

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Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in June?	Kalshi	98%
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in June?	Kalshi	91%
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in June?	Kalshi	38%
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in June?	Kalshi	5%
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.5% in June?	Kalshi	2%
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.4% in June?	Kalshi	2%
Will CPI Core rise more than 1.0% in June?	Kalshi	1%
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.9% in June?	Kalshi	1%
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.7% in June?	Kalshi	1%
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.6% in June?	Kalshi	1%
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.8% in June?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

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98%

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About This Event

In Jun 2026 If the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for June 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases by above X then the market resolves to Yes. Please note that the value of the Underlying is the single-decimal value reported by the BLS. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** CPI core in June
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In Jun 2026

If the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for June 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases by above X then the market resolves to Yes. Please note that the value of the Underlying is the single-decimal value reported by the BLS. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for June 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases by above 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Please note that the value of the Underlying is the single"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will CPI Core rise more than 1.0% in June?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will CPI Core rise more than 0.9% in June?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will CPI Core rise more than 0.8% in June?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will CPI Core rise more than 0.7% in June?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will CPI Core rise more than 0.6% in June?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will CPI Core rise more than 0.5% in June?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will CPI Core rise more than 0.4% in June?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in June?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in June?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in June?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 90.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 9.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in June?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

CPI core in June

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KALSHI

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in June?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.5¢No 2.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in June?

If the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for June 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases by above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Please note that the value of the Underlying is the single

KALSHI

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in June?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.5¢No 9.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in June?

If the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for June 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases by above 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Please note that the value of the Underlying is the single

KALSHI

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in June?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 37.5¢No 62.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in June?

If the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for June 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases by above 0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Please note that the value of the Underlying is the single

KALSHI

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in June?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in June?

If the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for June 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases by above 0.3%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Please note that the value of the Underlying is the single

KALSHI

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.5% in June?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.5¢No 98.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.5% in June?

If the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for June 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases by above 0.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Please note that the value of the Underlying is the single

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Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in June?

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Events (1)

CPI core in June

Markets (11)

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in June?

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in June?

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in June?

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in June?

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in June?

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in June?

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in June?

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in June?

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.5% in June?

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.5% in June?

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Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in June?

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CPI core in June

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in June?

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in June?

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in June?

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in June?

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in June?

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in June?

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in June?

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in June?

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.5% in June?

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.5% in June?

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