Wisconsin's 6th Congressional District (WI-06) is a U.S. House of Representatives seat that will be contested in the 2026 midterm elections on November 4, 2026. The district covers a large portion of east-central Wisconsin, including the cities of Oshkosh, Fond du Lac, Sheboygan, and Manitowoc, and stretches from the Fox Valley to the shores of Lake Michigan. The current representative is Republican Glenn Grothman, who has held the seat since 2015. The outcome of the 2026 race will determine which party controls this seat, which is part of the broader battle for the U.S. House majority. The 2026 midterms occur in the second year of President Donald Trump's second term, a context that historically favors the opposition party. In the 2022 midterms, Republicans narrowly won the House, but in 2026, Democrats are hoping to flip seats like WI-06, while Republicans aim to hold their majority. The political landscape in Wisconsin has become increasingly competitive at the statewide level, with recent elections for governor, U.S. Senate, and president decided by narrow margins. However, WI-06 itself has been a reliably Republican district, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+7, meaning it votes about 7 points more Republican than the national average. Interest in this market stems from its role in the national fight for control of the House. With a slim Republican majority in the 119th Congress, every seat matters. WI-06 is one of several districts that could be competitive if national trends favor Democrats, but its conservative lean makes it a long shot for a flip. The market also attracts attention because of the potential for primary challenges, candidate recruitment, and the influence of state and national political dynamics. As of early 2025, no major candidates have officially declared for the 2026 race, but speculation is already underway, particularly about whether Grothman will seek re-election or retire, which could open the seat to a more competitive race.

Historical Context

Wisconsin's 6th Congressional District has a long history of Republican representation. Since 1993, the seat has been held by Republicans, with Tom Petri serving from 1979 to 2015, followed by Glenn Grothman. Petri was a moderate Republican, while Grothman is more conservative, reflecting a rightward shift in the district. The district's boundaries were redrawn after the 2020 census, and the current map, which took effect in 2022, retains a similar partisan lean, with a PVI of R+7. In the 2022 midterm, Grothman won re-election with 70.2% of the vote against a little-known Democratic challenger, reflecting the district's strong Republican tilt. In 2024, he ran unopposed in the general election, a rarity that underscores the lack of Democratic investment in the district. However, statewide Wisconsin elections have been close: Trump won the state in 2016 and 2024, but Democrats won the gubernatorial race in 2018 and 2022, and Senator Baldwin won re-election in 2024 by a narrow margin. This divergence suggests that while WI-06 is solidly Republican, national swings could make it more competitive in a favorable Democratic year. The 2026 midterm will be the first time this seat is contested under the current district lines in a non-presidential year. Historically, midterm elections often see a backlash against the sitting president's party, which could narrow the Republican advantage. However, the district's conservative DNA makes a flip unlikely unless there is a major national wave or a scandal involving the Republican nominee.

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