BNB Up or Down - October 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "BNB Up or Down - October 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET" [1]. Its rules say the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-27T01:50:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time, so readers should check that the UTC timestamp matches the intended window before relying on it.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation time is 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-26T05:29:04.770Z [1]. These are different times, and the prices below describe the observation time, not the moment you read this. At observation, the provider status was "active" [1].
The saved prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot values, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The difference between the two outcomes is small in this snapshot, but that alone does not indicate what the market expects.
The sample covers one market from one event, and the coverage record shows no partial sample [1]. Because only this contract is saved, no cross-platform or cross-contract comparison is possible. Volume and trader counts are not in the evidence, so this snapshot cannot speak to liquidity or participation.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include any price after the observation time, any information about the reference price at the start of the window, or the actual TWAP outcome. The contract had not resolved in the supplied material. The reasons for the observed prices are not described in the evidence and should not be inferred from it.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window price direction contract on BNB, titled "BNB Up or Down - October 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET." It is listed in the crypto category on Polymarket [1]. The contract asks whether the price of BNB, measured against U.S. dollars, will be higher or lower over a five-minute window. The title gives the window in Eastern Time, while the listed end time is recorded in UTC as 01:50 on October 27, 2026 [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The measurement uses the BNB/USD TWAP data stream published by Chainlink, not spot prices from exchanges or other sources [1]. The contract states this directly, so a move that appears on a different market feed does not by itself determine the outcome. The saved snapshot for this contract shows the Up outcome at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are prices recorded at the observation time, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of either outcome. The contract's status at the time of the snapshot was active [1]. Because the window is defined by the TWAP data stream, the outcome depends on that measurement rather than on the snapshot prices.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether BNB's average price over a defined five-minute window ends at or above the price at the start of that window. Because the average is taken over time and compared with the opening price, the contract focuses on the direction of the window rather than a single price at its close [1]. The use of a specific Chainlink data stream means the rules tie the outcome to one named measurement source [1]. The saved snapshot shows the two outcome prices as close to even at the observation time, which reflects only that moment in the market and not any later state [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve to Up?
It resolves to Up if the TWAP of BNB over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What makes this contract resolve to Down?
It resolves to Down if the condition for Up is not met, meaning the TWAP over the range is below the price at the start of that range [1].
Which price source determines the result?
The rules name the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink as the resolution source and state that other sources or spot markets do not determine the outcome [1].
Do the prices in the snapshot show the chance of each outcome?
The snapshot prices are recorded at a specific observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as confirmed chances [1].
When does the contract close?
The listed end time is 2026-10-27T01:50:00.000Z, which is a contract closing time and not a record of how the contract resolved [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.