Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T03:00:06.402Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET" [1]. Its rule states that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range" [1]. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A contract written this way can differ from a question about Bitcoin's spot price on another exchange, so readers should compare contracts only when their resolution wording matches.
The listed end time is 2026-10-29T02:30:00.000Z [1]. The title uses ET, while the listed end time is in UTC, so readers should check both when comparing with other contracts.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-28T03:00:06.402Z and retrieved at 2026-10-28T05:01:46.947Z [1]. These are earlier times than the current date in this report, so the prices below describe that observation only and may no longer reflect the market.
At observation, the quoted prices were 0.505 for "Up" and 0.495 for "Down" [1]. Because the sample contains one market with two outcomes, these figures sum to 1.00. They are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The saved data does not include volume or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold either side.
What remains uncertain
The sample is complete for this saved event: one market, with none omitted [1]. Even so, the source notes that the saved listing "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1].
The evidence does not explain why the prices were where they were. It also does not show whether the contract has since closed or resolved, because the only status recorded is "active" at the time of the snapshot [1]. A reader should confirm the current status and rules directly on the provider's page before relying on this contract for any decision.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-28T03:00:06.402Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 28, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term binary contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET," listed on Polymarket in the crypto category [1]. The contract asks whether Bitcoin's price will move up or down over a five-minute window. Its rules state that it will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream, described in the rules as a 60-second stream [1]. The rules say the contract concerns the price according to that Chainlink data stream for the BTC/USD pair, and not according to other sources or spot markets [1]. This means a reader comparing the contract to a price on a particular exchange would be looking at a different reference. The contract's outcome depends on the averaged Chainlink series over the window, not on the price at the moment the window closes. The listed end time is 2026-10-29T02:30:00.000Z, which corresponds to 10:30 PM ET on October 28 [1]. A listed end time is a scheduled close of the contract's window, not a record that the contract has resolved. The contract's provider status at the time of retrieval was active [1]. Any price snapshot shown alongside this entry reflects the time it was observed and is not an executable quote or a verified probability.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price over a short, fixed window, using a time-weighted average from a specific Chainlink data stream rather than a single trade or spot exchange price [1]. Because the rules compare the averaged price over the window with the price at the window's start, the outcome depends on the averaged series relative to that starting value. Equal values resolve to "Up" under the stated rules [1]. Readers interested in this contract should focus on the resolution mechanics, since the title alone does not show which price series decides the outcome [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-28 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What price determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract uses the time-weighted average price of Bitcoin generated by Chainlink over the time range in the title, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream [1].
What counts as an Up resolution?
The rules state that the market resolves to "Up" if the TWAP over the specified range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Does the contract follow spot exchange prices?
No. The rules say the market concerns the price according to the Chainlink TWAP data stream for BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets [1].
When is the listed end time for this contract?
The listed end time is 2026-10-29T02:30:00.000Z, which is 10:30 PM ET on October 28 [1]. This is the scheduled close of the window and does not by itself confirm a resolution outcome.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.