Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?

Name: U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$9.95K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?

Vol

$9.95K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $9.95K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $9.95K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on December 31?	Poly	79%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on December 31?	Poly	8%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on December 31?	Poly	8%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on December 31?	Poly	4%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on December 31?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

79%

Top Probability

$9.95K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will r

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (80 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will r

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $10.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $61.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.16)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 78.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 21.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 35% on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $889
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.2% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics