Florida's 25th District margin of victory
K 295 contracts
1
3
Florida's 25th District margin of victory
K 295 contracts
1
3
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 1, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Singer, 1+ pts at 15.5%.
Kalshi
- Singer, 1+ pts15.5%
- Singer, 4+ pts5.5%
- Singer, 7+ pts3.8%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 295 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
3
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 1, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Florida's 25th District If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Florida's 25th District by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast, for raw votes. This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-29T18:00:06.063Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether the Democratic Party's margin of victory in Florida's 25th District House election will reach set thresholds. The margin is the Democratic vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the candidate or party that finishes immediately behind, or minus the first-place finisher if the Democrats lose. The rules state that "No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin," and that a tie yields a margin of 0 [1]. The event also "will close and expire early if certified election results are published" [1].
The saved markets are phrased as "at least" thresholds, such as "at least 1 percentage points" and "at least 4 percentage points." The rule text describes range-style boundaries, with each range inclusive of its lower bound. Read each market's own title and the event rules before comparing them, because the thresholds here are not the same kind of bucket.
Each market lists an end date of 2027-11-03T15:00:00.000Z [1]. This is the provider's listed close time, not an announced election date, and the supplied rules do not state a listed end time. The rules' early-close language means the actual resolution timing depends on certification, which the evidence does not establish.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-29T18:00:06.063Z, and the record was retrieved at 18:07:33.279Z [1]. These are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The Yes prices fall as the threshold rises. The "at least 1 percentage points" Yes price is 0.78, the "at least 4 percentage points" price is about 0.545, the "at least 10 percentage points" price is 0.16, and the "at least 28 percentage points" price is 0.005 [1]. This ordering is consistent with higher thresholds being harder to reach, but the snapshot does not show why any price is where it is.
The sample includes all 11 saved markets for this event, with partialSample set to false [1]. The sample warning states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The evidence covers only this Kalshi event, so the prices should not be combined with other platforms or events.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include current news, trader counts, trading volume details for each market, or any explanation of price movements. It also does not confirm when certification will occur. Prices from this snapshot should not be treated as current after the retrieval time, and any comparison with a contract on a different platform requires checking whether its wording, thresholds, and close times match.
References
- Kalshi: Florida's 25th District margin of victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T18:00:06.063Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 29, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a Kalshi event on the margin of victory for Democrats in Florida's 25th Congressional District in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election [1]. Rather than asking who wins, it asks by how many percentage points the Democratic Party wins or loses. The saved event contains a ladder of threshold markets, each asking whether the Democratic margin will be at least a given number of points, with thresholds in the saved set running from 1 to 28 percentage points [1]. The margin is calculated from vote percentages. If the Democratic Party wins, the margin is the Democratic vote percentage minus the percentage received by the candidate or party that finishes immediately behind it. If the Democratic Party loses, the margin is negative and is measured against the candidate or party that finishes first [1]. A tie for first place produces a margin of zero. If the Democratic Party is the only candidate in an uncontested race, the source sets the margin at 100 percentage points, or at the total number of votes cast when the measure is raw votes [1]. Each range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, and no rounding is applied. The source gives an example: a margin of exactly 6 percent falls in the 6 to 7 percent range, while 5.99999 percent falls in the 5 to 6 percent range [1]. This matters for thresholds at whole numbers, because a result landing exactly on a threshold counts toward the higher bracket. The Florida House elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect the state's 28 representatives, one from each congressional district [2]. Primary elections in the state took place on August 18, 2026 [2]. The contract's source excerpt says the market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1]. The excerpt lists no end time, so the saved closing field in the market data should not be read as an announced resolution date.
Historical Context
The 2024 elections for the Florida House delegation were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the same 28 representatives, and they coincided with the U.S. presidential election and other federal and state contests [3]. Primary elections for that cycle took place on August 20 [3]. The 2026 cycle follows the same structure of one representative per district, with the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026 [2]. The supplied sources do not provide the 2024 margin in District 25, so this contract should not be read as a comparison to a prior result.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the size of a Democratic win or loss in one district, rather than the simple outcome. Its threshold ladder lets a reader see how the market values different margin sizes, such as a narrow win compared with a wide one [1]. Because the margin is defined as the gap between the Democratic share and the next-place share, a close race and a lopsided race produce very different values even when the winner is the same [1]. The definition also depends on how votes are counted and grouped. The source says that if the Democratic Party runs under multiple listings, votes attributable to the same underlying party are summed [1]. Anyone reading the market should check the rules text, not only the threshold label, because the calculation determines whether a result counts toward a given bracket [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-29 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome on a threshold market mean?
A Yes outcome means the Democratic margin of victory in Florida's 25th District meets or exceeds the stated percentage-point threshold, under the calculation described in the rules [1]. The margin is positive if the Democrats win and negative if they lose [1].
How is the margin calculated if Democrats lose?
If the Democratic Party loses, the margin is negative and is measured against the candidate or party that finishes first [1]. A negative margin therefore cannot satisfy a positive threshold on this ladder [1].
What happens with a tie or an uncontested race?
If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin is 0 [1]. In an uncontested race where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin is 100 percentage points, or the total number of votes cast for raw-vote measures [1].
When does this market close?
The source says the market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1]. The excerpt lists no end time for the event [1], so the closing date in the saved market data should not be treated as an announced resolution date.
Do the prices show the chance that a margin will occur?
The prices are provider snapshots taken at a recorded time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved sample includes all 11 markets in this event, and the source notes that the provider does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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