GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US existing home sales for July

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US existing home sales for July

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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8 markets tracked

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 3.80M?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 3.80M?	Kalshi	93%
Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 3.90M?	Kalshi	84%
Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.00M?	Kalshi	68%
Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.10M?	Kalshi	35%
Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.20M?	Kalshi	14%
Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.50M?	Kalshi	5%
Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.40M?	Kalshi	5%
Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.30M?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

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93%

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About This Event

July 2026 If US existing home sales for July 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions of homes, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Trading Economics, series: United States Existing Home Sales, which reports National Association of Realtors, NAR, data. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US existing home sales for July
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** July 2026

If US existing home sales for July 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions of homes, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Trading Economics, series: United States Existing Home Sales, which reports National Association of Realtors, NAR, data. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If US existing home sales for July 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions of homes) is above 4.50M, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from Trading Economics (series: United States Existing Home Sales), which reports National Association of Realtors (NAR) dat"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.50M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.40M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.30M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.20M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.10M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.00M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 68.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 3.90M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 84.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 3.80M?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US existing home sales for July

Volume$0.00

Markets8

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KALSHI

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 3.80M?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 3.80M?

If US existing home sales for July 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions of homes) is above 3.80M, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from Trading Economics (series: United States Existing Home Sales), which reports National Association of Realtors (NAR) dat

KALSHI

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 3.90M?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 84.0¢No 16.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 3.90M?

If US existing home sales for July 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions of homes) is above 3.90M, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from Trading Economics (series: United States Existing Home Sales), which reports National Association of Realtors (NAR) dat

KALSHI

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.00M?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 68.0¢No 32.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.00M?

If US existing home sales for July 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions of homes) is above 4.00M, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from Trading Economics (series: United States Existing Home Sales), which reports National Association of Realtors (NAR) dat

KALSHI

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.10M?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 34.5¢No 65.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.10M?

If US existing home sales for July 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions of homes) is above 4.10M, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from Trading Economics (series: United States Existing Home Sales), which reports National Association of Realtors (NAR) dat

KALSHI

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.20M?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.20M?

If US existing home sales for July 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, millions of homes) is above 4.20M, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Outcome verified from Trading Economics (series: United States Existing Home Sales), which reports National Association of Realtors (NAR) dat

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US existing home sales for July

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Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 3.80M?

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Events (1)

US existing home sales for July

Markets (8)

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 3.80M?

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 3.80M?

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 3.90M?

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 3.90M?

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.00M?

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.00M?

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.10M?

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.10M?

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.20M?

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.20M?

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Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 3.80M?

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US existing home sales for July

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 3.80M?

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 3.80M?

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 3.90M?

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 3.90M?

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.00M?

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.00M?

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.10M?

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.10M?

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.20M?

Will US existing home sales for July 2026 be above 4.20M?

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