Solana Up or Down - October 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET
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Solana Up or Down - October 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single binary contract on Polymarket, titled "Solana Up or Down - October 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET" [1]. The provider states that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-20T04:55:00.000Z [1]. Because the contract is tied to one data stream and one five-minute window, a price on a different exchange or a different contract cannot be read as the same measurement.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T07:51:03.624Z. These are different times, and the observation is the older of the two. The sample contains one market with two outcomes: "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The gap between them is small in this sample, but a snapshot cannot show whether a trade at either price was available.
The sample covers all saved markets for this event, with one market included and no partial sampling [1]. That does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for this window, but no other outcome appears in the saved record.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not show current prices. The provider status was "active" at retrieval [1], but the saved record does not show prices after the observation time. Volume, order book depth, and trader counts are not included, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold each side.
The record also does not explain why the prices are where they are. Comparing this contract with a differently worded Solana contract, such as one referencing another source or a longer window, would require separate evidence, and differing prices between them would not by themselves indicate an opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term binary contract on Polymarket titled "Solana Up or Down - October 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET." The contract asks whether the price of Solana in US dollars will finish the five-minute window at or above where it started. The market is listed in the crypto category and is identified by the provider as an active market with a listed end time of 2026-10-20T04:55:00.000Z [1]. The resolution rule is based on a time-weighted average price rather than a single price at the end of the window. According to the provider's rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of Solana over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The average is the measure used, so a brief spike or dip near the close does not by itself decide the outcome under this wording. The data used is specified precisely. The resolution source is the SOL/USD time-weighted average price data stream published by Chainlink, which the rules identify by a named stream [1]. The provider states that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream for the SOL/USD pair, and not any other sources or spot markets [1]. A reader comparing this contract with prices on exchanges or other data feeds should therefore keep in mind that those figures are not the settlement reference. The saved snapshot of this market was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC, and the record was retrieved later that day. At that observation, the market was listed as active, with an Up price of 0.505 and a Down price of 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from a moment in time, not current prices and not quotes that could be executed. The snapshot also does not show trading volume, so it says nothing about how much trading took place or how liquid the market was.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Solana's price, as reported in one specific Chainlink data stream, averages at or above its opening level over a set five-minute window [1]. Because it settles on a time-weighted average rather than a single trade or spot quote, it reflects the price path across the window in the way the rules define [1]. Its listed end time places settlement at the close of that window, and the rules limit settlement to the named Chainlink feed [1]. For someone reading the market, the important points are the exact window, the measure used, and the specific data source named in the rules.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether the market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves Up if the time-weighted average price of Solana over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which price source is used to settle the contract?
The resolution source is the SOL/USD time-weighted average price data stream from Chainlink, and the rules say the market concerns that feed rather than other sources or spot markets [1].
Do the listed prices show what I would pay or receive?
No. The saved Up and Down prices of 0.505 and 0.495 are snapshot values observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC, and they are not executable quotes [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.