This prediction market focuses on identifying the second most-watched movie on Netflix in the United States during a specific week, as determined by Netflix's official Top 10 list. Netflix updates its top10.netflix.com page every Tuesday at 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous Monday through Sunday. The ranking is based on total views, which Netflix defines as the total number of hours viewed divided by the runtime of the title. This metric, introduced in 2023, replaced the earlier method of counting 'households that watched at least 2 minutes' and provides a more standardized way to compare content popularity. For this market, the resolution will occur on February 17, 2026, with the #2 movie on the U.S. list being the outcome. If the update fails to appear by February 20, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'O' (likely indicating an off-schedule or null result). Netflix's weekly Top 10 lists have become a significant cultural barometer, influencing what subscribers watch and what content gets promoted. The lists cover both movies and TV shows, with separate rankings for English and non-English language titles. The U.S. movie list, in particular, draws attention because it reflects the tastes of the platform's largest market. Recent trends show that new releases, especially Netflix original films and licensed blockbusters, often dominate the top spots for several weeks. For example, in early 2025, titles like 'The Gray Man' and 'Glass Onion' held the #1 and #2 positions for multiple weeks after their debut, while older catalog titles occasionally surge due to social media trends or holiday viewing. The prediction market for this specific week in February 2026 is driven by the uncertainty of what will be released and promoted by Netflix around that time. February is typically a month for romantic comedies and family films due to Valentine's Day and Presidents' Day weekend. Netflix often schedules original movie releases to coincide with these holidays, such as 'The Kissing Booth 3' (released August 2021) or 'To All the Boys: Always and Forever' (February 2021). Additionally, licensed movies like 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' or 'Barbie' could appear if their streaming rights allow. The market attracts bettors who analyze release schedules, social media buzz, and historical performance patterns to predict which movie will land at #2. Interest in this topic extends beyond casual betting. The Netflix Top 10 list is used by media analysts, investors, and content creators to gauge what resonates with audiences. A movie's placement can affect its cultural footprint, licensing deals, and even award season momentum. For instance, 'All Quiet on the Western Front' (2022) gained Oscar traction partly due to its strong Netflix viewership. Similarly, 'Red Notice' (2021) became one of Netflix's most-watched movies, leading to sequels and spin-offs. Understanding these dynamics helps stakeholders predict which content will drive subscriber retention and acquisition.

Historical Context

Netflix began publishing its weekly Top 10 lists in February 2020, initially for the United States and later expanding to over 90 countries. The first list, for the week of February 17, 2020, had 'Spenser Confidential' at #1 and 'The Angry Birds Movie 2' at #2. This move was part of Netflix's effort to increase transparency and provide data to creators and advertisers. Prior to this, Netflix only released selective viewership numbers, often for its biggest hits, leading to criticism about lack of accountability. The weekly lists changed that by showing how both new releases and catalog titles performed over time. In 2023, Netflix revised its ranking methodology from 'hours viewed' to 'total views' (hours viewed divided by runtime). This change aimed to make comparisons fairer between short and long movies. For example, a 90-minute comedy could now be compared directly to a 3-hour epic. The shift also aligned with Netflix's broader move to emphasize 'engagement' over raw minutes. The first list using the new metric was published on June 20, 2023, with 'Extraction 2' leading. Since then, the #2 spot has been held by a mix of originals like 'The Mother' (2023) and licensed titles like 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' (2023). Historically, the #2 position is often volatile. In the week after a major holiday, new releases frequently debut at #1, pushing previous #1s to #2. For instance, during Christmas week 2023, 'Rebel Moon – Part One' debuted at #1, bumping 'Leave the World Behind' to #2. Similarly, during summer 2024, 'The Garfield Movie' held #2 for two weeks after 'Despicable Me 4' took #1. February is notable for Valentine's Day releases; in February 2024, 'Players' (a Netflix original romantic comedy) debuted at #2 behind 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie.' These patterns show that both new releases and sustained catalog hits can occupy the #2 spot.