Dogecoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
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Dogecoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T09:00:06.399Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event contains one market, titled "Dogecoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET" [1]. The provider states that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the provider notes that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-27T06:45:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's closing time, not a resolution. The evidence does not show a resolution outcome, and the market is not archived.
Reading the snapshot
The saved provider observation time is 2026-10-26T09:00:06.399Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-26T11:34:43.601Z [1]. The prices below describe only that observation, not the present moment.
At observation, the market showed "Up" at 0.5 and "Down" at 0.5 [1]. These are snapshot prices. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Because the market is listed as active at observation, the evidence cannot show whether these prices have changed since.
The coverage record lists one market for this event, and the sample is not partial [1]. Because there is only one event on this page, no cross-platform or cross-event comparison applies. Any other Dogecoin contract with a different window, such as a different time range, has different wording and closing time, so its price should not be compared directly with this one.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices are equal, and it does not report trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants. Equal prices in a snapshot do not indicate a forecast or a settled view.
The source also does not establish the Dogecoin price at the start of the window or the TWAP value during it, so the outcome cannot be determined from this record. The sample notes that the saved market list does not establish that providers list every possible outcome, though this contract has only two named outcomes in the saved data [1].
References
- Polymarket: Dogecoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T09:00:06.399Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This Polymarket contract asks whether Dogecoin's price will be higher or lower over a single 15-minute window, from 2:30 AM to 2:45 AM Eastern Time on October 27. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin over that window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of the window. If it is lower, the market resolves to "Down" [1]. The contract uses a TWAP rather than a single spot price, so the outcome depends on the average price across the interval, not only on where the price ends [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's DOGE/USD TWAP data stream, not spot exchange prices or other data providers. The contract states that it is about the price according to that Chainlink stream and not according to any other source or spot market [1]. Traders reading the contract therefore need to focus on that specific data stream when assessing how the market will be settled. The listed end time in the contract rules is 06:45 UTC on October 27, 2026, which corresponds to 2:45 AM Eastern Time [1]. This is the closing time written in the market rules. It is not a separate announced event or a confirmed result, and the rules alone do not show when or how the market will be finally settled. At the time of the most recent observation in the saved record, at 09:00 UTC on October 26, 2026, the Up and Down outcomes were each priced at 0.5 [1]. Those prices reflect that moment only and are not a forecast of the result.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Dogecoin's time-weighted average price, as reported by Chainlink's DOGE/USD TWAP data stream, finishes at or above the price at the beginning of a 15-minute window [1]. Because it is tied to one data stream and one short interval, it tracks a narrow, specific price comparison rather than Dogecoin's broader price trend. Readers should read the resolution wording closely, since the TWAP method and the chosen data source determine the outcome, not general news or other price feeds [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves Up if the Chainlink DOGE/USD TWAP over the 2:30 AM to 2:45 AM ET window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which data source is used for resolution?
The resolution source is Chainlink's DOGE/USD TWAP data stream. The contract states that other sources and spot markets do not determine the outcome [1].
Why does the contract use a time-weighted average price?
The contract compares a TWAP across the time range with the starting price, so the result reflects the average price over the window rather than a single moment [1].
What time does the market close according to the listed rules?
The listed end time is 06:45 UTC on October 27, 2026, which is 2:45 AM Eastern Time [1]. This is the rule timestamp and does not confirm a settlement result.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.