NC-03 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $13.5K
1
10
NC-03 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $13.5K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 0-3% at 20.9%.
Polymarket
- Republican 0-3%20.9%
- Republican 3-6%19%
- Republican 6-9%16.5%
- Republican 9-12%15%
- Republican 18%+12.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $13.5K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 NC-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 NC-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event concerns the margin of victory in the 2026 NC-03 House election, which the source describes as "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. The margin is "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Contracts labeled Democratic or Republican refer to the candidates nominated by those parties, and independent candidates "will not represent options for either party" [1].
Bracket boundaries matter. If a reported value "falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1]. Resolution depends on "the official results" as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certification, although "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules also say that if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. This is a fallback deadline in the rules, not an announced date for certification.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z, and this record was retrieved at 2026-10-16T01:04:52.531Z [1]. These values describe that observation window only. They are not live quotes and should not be treated as current conditions.
The sample includes ten contracts from one Polymarket event, and the coverage record shows all ten were included with no partial sample [1]. Within the sample, Yes prices range from 0.0165 (Democratic, 6% or more) to 0.225 (Republican, 3%-6%) [1]. The Republican brackets are 0%-3% at 0.2025, 3%-6% at 0.225, 6%-9% at 0.21, 9%-12% at 0.18, 12%-15% at 0.055, 15%-18% at 0.054, and 18% or more at 0.125 [1]. The Democratic brackets are 0%-3% at 0.0415, 3%-6% at 0.112, and 6% or more at 0.0165 [1]. The source's ordering reflects a display sort by Yes price, not a ranking of outcomes.
Prices are not verified probabilities, and the source supplies no volume data, so it says nothing about liquidity or trader count. Brackets with different prices are different contracts, so their price gap does not by itself indicate an opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The source does not explain why prices are where they are. It also does not provide recent news, the number of participants, or any result. The sample warning states that the saved markets "do not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1], so no outcome outside this list should be assumed to have a particular price.
References
- Polymarket: NC-03 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract is a multi-bracket market on the margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House election in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district (NC-03). The market is hosted on Polymarket. Its rules define the margin as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes won by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each candidate's percentage is calculated by dividing that candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The election itself is expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. That date matches the scheduled date for the wider 2026 House elections, which cover all 435 congressional districts as part of the 2026 midterm elections [2]. The contract is organized into brackets. Each bracket asks whether the Democratic Party or the Republican Party nominee will win by a stated percentage range, such as 0% to 3%, 3% to 6%, or 18% or more [1]. Independent candidates do not count as options for either party [1]. The rules say that a margin falling exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If the nominee of either party is replaced before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. The rules also explain how ties and delays are handled. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, the outcome depends on whether the tied candidates are listed in the contract. Where a tie is between two listed candidates, the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically is used. Where a tie involves only unlisted candidates, the contract resolves to "Other" [1]. If a recount starts before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified [1]. The saved event lists an end time of November 4, 2026, at 04:59 UTC [1]. The contract says it will resolve on the official vote count once that count has been certified, using results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certification. Credible reporting with overwhelming consensus may also be used [1]. The end time is a listed date in the market record, not a confirmed result or a date on which the race has been decided.
Historical Context
The source material available for this contract is limited to background on the broader electoral calendar. The 2026 House elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026, as part of the 2026 midterm elections during President Donald Trump's second nonconsecutive term [2]. North Carolina's background materials describe the 2024 presidential election held on November 5, 2024, in which the state had 16 electoral votes after gaining a seat following the 2020 census [3]. Those materials do not describe the NC-03 district's past elections or candidates, so no district-specific history is provided here.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how close the NC-03 House race will be, rather than which party wins. Its brackets let a reader see how the outcome is divided into margin ranges for each party [1]. Because the margin is calculated from shares of valid votes, the rules focus on the official count rather than unofficial tallies [1]. The rules also specify how boundary values, tied results, replaced nominees, and recounts are treated, which determine how a bracket resolves [1]. The election date and the midterm context come from the event rules and the broader House election background [1][2].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the margin of victory measure in this contract?
It measures the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is based on the valid votes each candidate receives divided by all valid votes cast [1].
Do independent candidates count in the Democratic or Republican brackets?
No. The rules state that independent candidates will not represent options for either party. Only the Democratic and Republican Party nominees are used for those options [1].
What happens if a margin falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets?
The contract resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
What happens if a candidate is replaced before election day?
The name in the contract is updated, and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee of that party [1].
When does the market resolve if results are not certified in time?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Does a recount affect when the contract resolves?
Yes. If a recount is started before the vote total is official, the market remains open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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