Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract concerns the window named in its title, "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET" [1]. The provider states that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The named source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the provider notes that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T02:05:00.000Z [1]. Readers comparing this with the ET window in the title should check the UTC timestamp against it.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T04:10:56.593Z [1]. These are separate times, and the observation time is the basis for the prices shown. In that snapshot, the Up outcome was priced at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495 [1]. The recorded status was "active" [1].
These are saved values. They are not live or executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The sample contains one market from one platform, with no other markets for this event, so the only comparison available is between the two outcomes of this binary contract. The evidence includes no volume figures, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many traders are involved.
What remains uncertain
The evidence contains no prices after the snapshot, so it cannot show where this market stands today. It also contains no Chainlink TWAP values for the window and no resolution, so the outcome cannot be determined from these materials. The evidence does not explain why the prices sit close to even.
Because only one contract is supplied, no other platform's pricing is available for comparison. A contract on another venue with similar wording should be checked against its own rules and close time before any comparison is drawn.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term binary contract on Polymarket titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET" in the crypto category [1]. The contract asks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down over a five-minute window. According to the provider's rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The measurement is not a single price at one instant. It is an average over the window, generated by Chainlink. The rules name the BTC/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source [1]. Because the comparison uses a time-weighted average rather than the closing price, the outcome depends on how the price behaved across the whole interval, compared with where it started. The listed end time for the contract is 2026-10-20T02:05:00Z [1]. That is the close of the window named in the title. It is a date written in the contract rules and does not describe a separate announced event. The source record shows the rules as retrieved on October 19, 2026 [1]. Contract status and any later changes are not described in the rules text and should be checked directly on the provider's page.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price across a five-minute window, using a specific data feed rather than general market prices. The rules say the result is based only on the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, not on other sources or spot markets [1]. Anyone reading a price for this contract needs to understand that the resolution rule, not a quote from another exchange, determines the outcome. The rule also means that a move that looks up in one exchange's feed may not resolve the same way if the Chainlink TWAP over the window is lower than the starting price [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the "Up" outcome mean for this contract?
The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of Bitcoin over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
What does the "Down" outcome mean?
If the time-weighted average price over the window is below the price at the start of the window, the contract resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price source decides the result?
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream. The rules say the market is about that stream and not about any other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the measurement window end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T02:05:00Z, which matches the end of the 10:00PM to 10:05PM ET window in the title [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.