This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Name: Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.12K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)

Vol

$1.12K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.12K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.12K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Poly	49%
Will Amazon have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Poly	48%
Will Moonshot have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Poly	47%
Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Poly	47%
Will Microsoft have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Poly	47%
Will Mistral have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Poly	45%
Will Meituan have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Poly	45%
Will Meta have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Poly	45%
Will ByteDance have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Poly	44%
Will Z.ai have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Poly	43%
Will Alibaba have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Poly	37%
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Poly	30%
Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Poly	24%
Will Baidu have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Poly	24%
Will DeepSeek have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?	Poly	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

49%

Top Probability

$1.12K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which company has the #2 AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Ran"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $931
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.20)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $51
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Baidu have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $156
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Mistral have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $51
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Meituan have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $85
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $57
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $51
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $51
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Amazon have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $27
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Z.ai have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $51
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will DeepSeek have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $189
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Alibaba have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $51
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will ByteDance have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $95
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Moonshot have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $68
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Meta have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $79
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Microsoft have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $54
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech