Ligue 1 Relegation
K 20.1K contracts
1
18
Ligue 1 Relegation
K 20.1K contracts
1
18
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 20.1K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
18
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
2026-27 If X is relegated from the Ligue 1 in 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This saved analysis is awaiting a background update. Its prices and claims may be outdated; compare them with the dated market data above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T06:00:05.665Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied Kalshi event is "Ligue 1 Relegation" for the 2026-27 season. Each club has its own binary market. The contract wording states: "If X is relegated from the Ligue 1 in 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. The Troyes contract, for example, asks only whether Troyes will be relegated. The source also says the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1].
The excerpt lists the provider status as active and says the event's listed end time was not supplied [1]. The individual market records show an end date of 2027-07-15T02:00:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close timestamp in the market data. It is not an announced resolution date, and it does not indicate when relegation will be decided.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-13T06:00:05.665Z. The evidence was retrieved at 2026-10-13T07:37:54.355Z [1]. These values are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Within each market, the Yes and No prices sum to 1.
Troyes shows Yes at 0.545 and No at 0.455 [1]. Auxerre shows Yes at 0.525 [1]. Le Mans and Le Havre each show Yes at 0.515 [1]. Nice, Toulouse, Stade Brest 29, Stade Rennes, Strasbourg Alsace, Lens, Paris, and Lille each show Yes at 0.50 [1].
The sample is partial. The event has 18 markets, and 12 are included [1]. Included markets were selected by finite Yes price, then volume. The six omitted markets are not shown, so this snapshot does not reveal their prices. The 12 shown should not be treated as the full field, and they should not be ranked against markets from another event or provider. Volume is not liquidity or a count of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price is at its level, and it does not say how many traders hold any position. No standings, match results, or team news appear in the supplied material. The excerpt does not give an event end time, and it contains no information about past forecasting accuracy. The Kalshi excerpt also states that the platform is not affiliated with the Governing League [1]. Because these figures come from the observation time above, check the current listing before relying on any price.
References
- Kalshi: Ligue 1 Relegation. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T06:00:05.665Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 13, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract asks whether a specific Ligue 1 club will be relegated from the league during the 2026-27 season. The contract listing states that if the named club is relegated in that season, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The listing also says the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. Each club has its own contract with this wording, so the question for each one is whether that club's relegation happens in the 2026-27 season. The listing also makes clear that the platform, Kalshi, is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or otherwise officially connected with the governing league [1]. Trademarks and brand names belong to their respective owners [1]. The listing excerpt gives a provider status of active and says no listed end time was supplied [1]. Traders should read the full rules on the provider's page before relying on how a contract settles. The relegation mechanics that surround this contract are described in a separate source. The Ligue 1 relegation and promotion play-offs, known in French as the Barrages, are an annual two-legged fixture. They are contested by the 16th-placed Ligue 1 team and the winner of the Ligue 2 promotion play-offs, with the winner decided by aggregate score [2]. The first leg is played at the home ground of the Ligue 2 club, and the return leg at the home of the Ligue 1 club [2]. The sources supplied do not state how a play-off result maps onto a relegation contract, so the rules of each contract should be checked for that case.
Historical Context
The Ligue 1 relegation and promotion play-offs were first introduced for the 2015-16 season, but due to legal issues they were adopted in the 2016-17 season. Similar play-offs had been played until 1993, when Ligue 1 was named Division 1 [2]. The 2023-24 Ligue 1 season was the 86th season of the competition. Its relegation play-off was played on 30 May and 2 June 2024 [3]. These are historical records from the sources and do not describe the current 2026-27 season or its standings.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single event: whether a named Ligue 1 club is relegated during the 2026-27 season [1]. Its Yes outcome depends on that relegation occurring within the season named in the contract title and rules [1]. The contract also explains that the relegation play-off is a separate fixture between the 16th-placed Ligue 1 team and a Ligue 2 club [2]. Anyone reading a price for one club's contract should keep in mind that it reflects only that club's contract and its own rules, not a comparison with other clubs' contracts.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-13 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for a Yes outcome?
The contract resolves to Yes if the named club is relegated from Ligue 1 in the 2026-27 season [1].
Does the contract close early?
The listing says the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1].
Is the platform connected to the league?
The listing states that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League [1].
What is the relegation play-off?
It is an annual two-legged fixture between the 16th-placed Ligue 1 team and the winner of the Ligue 2 promotion play-offs, decided by aggregate score and administered by Ligue de Football Professionnel [2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
