Changhua County Magistrate Election Winner
PM $16.0K
1
6
Changhua County Magistrate Election Winner
PM $16.0K
1
6
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Chen Su-yueh at 92%.
Polymarket
- Chen Su-yueh92%
- Wei Ping-cheng9%
- Chiu Chien-fu0.1%
- Lin Shih-hsien0.1%
- Huang Hsiu-fang<0.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $16.0K
Reported volume · provider units
6
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Changhua County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Polymarket event "Changhua County Magistrate Election Winner" resolves according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Changhua County through this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election are excluded [1]. The rules state that Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026 [1]. That is the date written in the contract rules, not a separately announced event notice.
The rules also set a fallback. If the result is unknown, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. Resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it follows official results from the Central Election Commission [1].
The listed end time for each market is 2026-11-29T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract close time, not the time the winner is determined or the market resolves.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T23:09:51.498Z [1]. Prices describe that observation only. They are not live quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities.
The sample includes all six saved markets for this event, and the provider reports all six as included, so this is not a partial sample [1]. The Yes prices are: Chen Su-yueh 0.92, Wei Ping-cheng 0.085, Huang Hsiu-fang 0.0045, Lin Shih-hsien 0.0015, Chiu Chien-fu 0.0015, and Hung Jung-chang 0.0005 [1]. The sum of these Yes prices is about 1.01, which is a reminder that snapshot prices are not normalized quotes.
The sample has no "Other" market, so this snapshot does not show a price for that outcome. The provider notes that the saved markets do not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1]. Each row is a separate contract, and the Yes and No prices within a row are not a verified probability estimate.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not explain why prices are where they are, and it does not indicate how many traders hold each view. Volume is not liquidity, and it is not a count of traders, so this record does not show how deep any market is. The evidence contains no recent news about the race and no information on candidate eligibility beyond the rule text.
Because all markets come from one provider event, comparison across platforms would require separately verified wording and close times. Any such comparison should check resolution language first, since different rules can make similar-looking prices refer to different outcomes.
References
- Polymarket: Changhua County Magistrate Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract is a prediction market on who will become the next Magistrate of Changhua County, Taiwan. The provider's event description states that Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026, and that the market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate as a result of that election [1]. The saved event lists an end time of 2026-11-29T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That listed end time is a provider setting for the contract. It is not a report that results have been announced. The rules define the resolution source. The market resolves based on the election results as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves based solely on official results reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission [1]. The rules also exclude temporary, interim, or placeholder magistrates appointed before the election [1]. The rules include a fallback. If the result is not known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. Traders therefore face both a question about the winner and a question about whether a result is established by that deadline. Changhua County is a county in west-central Taiwan. It is described as the smallest county on the main island by area and the fourth smallest in the country. It has a total population of 1.2 million, is the most populous county in the Republic of China, and its capital is Changhua City [2]. The saved event includes six named candidate markets, each asking whether a specific person will win the next Changhua County Magistrate election [1]. The Yes price for one of them was 0.92 at the observation time, and the others were lower [1]. These figures are provider snapshots from 21:00 UTC on October 15, 2026, not live quotes. The event coverage shows that all six saved markets were included in this sample. That does not establish that the provider lists every possible candidate or outcome.
Historical Context
Taiwan held local elections in 1954, which the Wikipedia source describes as the second nation-wide elections in the post-war era. Those elections chose all 21 mayors of cities and magistrates of counties [3]. The supplied evidence does not describe the history of the Changhua County magistracy specifically, so this background is general and does not explain the 2026 race.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which named candidate will become the next Magistrate of Changhua County after the scheduled November 28, 2026 election [1]. Its value depends on the stated rules, including the use of consensus credible reporting, the Central Election Commission as the tiebreaking official source, the exclusion of interim appointees, and the "Other" fallback if no result is established by June 30, 2027 [1]. Anyone reading the prices should keep those rules in view, because the price on a market reflects the contract's terms as well as the candidates.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the Changhua County Magistrate election scheduled?
The provider states that Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026 [1].
Which source decides how the market resolves?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, it resolves based solely on official results reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission [1].
Do interim or appointed magistrates count?
No. The rules state that temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered [1].
What happens if no winner is known by the deadline?
If the result is not known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Does a price on this market show the verified chance of winning?
The evidence does not establish that. The prices come from a provider snapshot observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z [1], so they reflect that moment only and are not presented as executable quotes or verified probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
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