GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

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Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

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$0.00

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

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0.0%avg

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

15 markets tracked

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in July 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(15)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	100%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	93%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	90%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	87%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	77%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	66%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	50%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	29%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	14%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	10%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	8%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	7%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in July 2026?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

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100%

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About This Event

July 2026 If the Consumer Price Index, CPI, for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than X in the twelve months ending July 2026, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, then the market resolves to Yes. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Unde

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** July 2026

If the Consumer Price Index, CPI, for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than X in the twelve months ending July 2026, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, then the market resolves to Yes. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Unde

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 3.5% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: In"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.5% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.2% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.1% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.9% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.8% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 76.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 66.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 87.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 89.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in July 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Aug 19, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Volume$0.00

Markets15

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KALSHI

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in July 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in July 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.1% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: In

KALSHI

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in July 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.5¢No 7.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in July 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.2% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: In

KALSHI

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in July 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 89.5¢No 10.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in July 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.3% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: In

KALSHI

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in July 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 87.0¢No 13.0¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in July 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.4% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: In

KALSHI

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in July 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 76.5¢No 23.5¢

KALSHISports

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in July 2026?

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 2.6% in the twelve months ending July 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: In

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Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

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Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in July 2026?

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Events (1)

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Markets (15)

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in July 2026?

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Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in July 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Core inflation in July 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.1% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.2% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.3% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.4% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in July 2026?

Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.6% for the year ending in July 2026?

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