Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract on whether Hyperliquid will go "Up" or "Down" in a short window, titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET" [1]. Under the stated rules, the market resolves to "Up" if "the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market "is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Other exchanges or spot prices therefore do not determine the outcome.
The listed end time is 2026-10-28T07:30:00.000Z [1]. The title expresses the window in Eastern Time, so readers should convert that time carefully when comparing it with other contracts. A listed end time is not the same as the actual resolution time, and this evidence does not show how or when the market resolved.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-27T11:12:14 UTC [1]. This is an earlier snapshot, not a live reading. The saved Up price is 0.505 and the Down price is 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They are also close to an even split, but the evidence does not explain why.
The sample covers one market from one event. Coverage reports 1 total market, 1 included, and no partial sample [1]. The source notes that all saved markets for these events are included, but this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because the event has only two outcomes in the sample, there is no omitted outcome to compare.
The evidence includes no volume, liquidity, or trader count, so it cannot show how deep the market is or how many participants hold each side.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the current price, any movement since the snapshot, or the actual outcome. It also does not show whether trading remained open after the observation time. Differences in wording or close times from other Hyperliquid contracts would matter for any comparison, but this evidence includes no other contracts. Price differences between separate contracts should not be read as an arbitrage opportunity without matching rules, timing, and executable prices.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a single Polymarket contract titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET" [1]. It is a short-window binary contract on the price of HYPE/USD, the Hyperliquid token, over a 15-minute range. The contract is listed in the Crypto category, and the provider's listed end time is 2026-10-28T07:30:00.000Z [1]. The rules state that the contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The outcome therefore depends on how the average price during the window compares with the starting price, not on the price at the final moment. The resolution source is Chainlink's HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, identified in the rules as a 60-second TWAP stream [1]. The rules say the market concerns the price reported by that Chainlink stream for the HYPE/USD pair, and not any other data source or spot market [1]. Traders reading the contract should therefore check the Chainlink stream definition rather than a general exchange price for the token. The saved snapshot shows two outcomes. "Up" was priced at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are observed prices at a point in time. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. The contract's status in the saved record is active [1]. The snapshot does not show what happened during the window, and it does not establish how the contract resolved.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the time-weighted average HYPE/USD price over a specific 15-minute window is at or above the price at the start of that window, using the Chainlink TWAP data stream as the reference [1]. Because it compares an average against a starting value, it is a narrow question about short-term price direction under the stated data definition. Anyone using the price snapshot should keep in mind that the provider's listed end time and the actual resolution are separate facts, and the saved record does not confirm a resolution [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve to Up?
It resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of Hyperliquid over the stated time range, as generated by Chainlink, is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Which data source determines the outcome?
The stated resolution source is the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say other sources or spot markets are not the reference [1].
Does the price shown mean the chance of an outcome?
The saved prices for Up and Down are snapshot observations from the provider record, not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.