This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings?

Name: Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings?
End: 2026-05-05T13:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$259.09

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings?

Vol

$259.09

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $259.09

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $259.09

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings?	Poly	87%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

87%

Top Probability

$259.09

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

As of market creation, Marathon Petroleum is estimated to release earnings on May 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Marathon Petroleum's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.09 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marathon Petroleum reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.09 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 5, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** As of market creation, Marathon Petroleum is estimated to release earnings on May 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Marathon Petroleum's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.09 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marathon Petroleum reports GAAP EPS greater than $1.09 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"As of market creation, Marathon Petroleum is estimated to release earnings on May 5, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Marathon Petroleum's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $1.09 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marathon Petroleum reports GAAP EPS greater than $1"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $259
* **Total Liquidity:** $818
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.32)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $259
  DATA: [Yes: 87.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETFinance