MO-03 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $18.5K
1
8
MO-03 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $18.5K
1
8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 15-20% at 23.4%.
Polymarket
- Republican 15-20%23.4%
- Republican 5-10%16.7%
- Republican 10-15%16.5%
- Republican 25-30%16.1%
- Republican 20-25%15%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $18.5K
Reported volume · provider units
8
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 MO-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event covers the 2026 MO-03 House election, which the source describes as "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. Each bracket resolves on the margin of victory, defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Only Democratic and Republican nominees count as the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not represent either option [1]. A margin that falls exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher bracket [1]. Resolution uses the official count once it is certified, and if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. That deadline is a contract rule, not an announced event date.
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z and retrieved at 2026-10-16T05:59:57.513Z [1]. They describe that snapshot only. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the evidence does not include volume or trader counts. All eight margin contracts list the same end time, 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1].
The Republican margin Yes prices range from 0.014 for "0%-5%" to 0.3165 for "15%-20%" [1]. Other values include 0.21 for "20%-25%," 0.165 for "5%-10%," and 0.04 for "30% or more" [1]. A separate contract asks whether the Democratic Party candidate will win, with a Yes price of 0.0135 [1]. This contract uses different wording from the margin brackets, so it is not a like-for-like comparison with them. Different contracts priced differently do not, by themselves, show an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The sample includes all eight saved markets for this event, and partialSample is false [1]. However, the source notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The evidence contains only one provider event, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. The excerpt also states that a replaced nominee would be reflected in the contract, but it does not identify any replacement. The supplied material does not explain why prices sit at their observed levels, and it does not report the election's outcome or any events after the snapshot.
References
- Polymarket: MO-03 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a set of prediction-market contracts tied to the margin of victory in the 2026 MO-03 House election. The source describes the election as one that is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The contracts do not ask who will win in general. They ask how large the gap is between the top two candidates, measured in percentage points of valid votes [1]. Under the contract rules, the margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties are the only ones that count as the "Democrat" and "Republican" options. Independent candidates do not count as either option [1]. The saved event contains eight margin-bracket contracts, each asking whether the Republican candidate will win by a stated range, plus one contract asking whether the Democratic candidate will win [1]. Each bracket is a separate contract with its own Yes and No prices, so the brackets are not a single ranked list of outcomes. The contract wording also notes that candidates are named only for the convenience of traders, and that a named nominee who is replaced before election day will be replaced in the contract, with the market resolving on the replacement [1]. The source describes two resolution routes. The primary resolution source is the official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The contract states that the market resolves on the official vote count once it has been made official [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures competitiveness in a specific race as expressed through the vote gap between the top two finishers, rather than only the winner. Because the bracket contracts split this gap into ranges such as 0 to 5 percent, 5 to 10 percent, and 30 percent or more, each one resolves on a different part of the final count [1]. The rules also specify how boundary values and ties are handled, which affects how a result maps to a single bracket [1]. Anyone reading a price for one of these contracts should use the dated snapshot as a record of what was observed at that time, not as a verified probability that the result will fall in that range.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the election [1].
What happens if a result falls exactly between two brackets?
The contract states that if the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
How are ties handled?
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, the rules depend on who is tied. A tie between two listed candidates resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. A tie between a listed and an unlisted candidate resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. A tie among two or more unlisted candidates resolves to "Other" [1].
What happens if the result is not known by the deadline?
The contract states that if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Does a recount affect resolution?
If a recount is started before the vote total is official, the market stays open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1].
Do independent candidates count as options?
No. Independent candidates do not represent options for either the Democratic or Republican side under these rules [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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