This PredictPedia topic covers two prediction market contracts that ask whether a court will rule that fraud affected the 2020 United States presidential election. The Kalshi contract asks whether any federal or state court will find that widespread fraud, fraudulent conduct, or illegal manipulation of ballots or vote counts occurred in connection with the 2020 election in one or more states before January 1, 2027, and it resolves Yes if so [1]. The Polymarket contract asks whether a US court will issue a ruling that widespread fraud, fraudulent conduct, or illegal manipulation of votes occurred in at least one US state during the 2020 election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and resolves No otherwise [2]. The wording of each contract matters. The Kalshi rules say that findings of procedural irregularities, administrative errors, and statutory violations related to election administration, such as ballot curing deadlines, signature matching standards, or observer access, do not satisfy the criterion. Violations of election law that do not involve intentional fraud or deliberate manipulation of votes also do not count. Individual criminal prosecutions or guilty pleas for isolated acts of voter fraud do not count either, even when the conduct relates to the 2020 election [1]. The Polymarket rules similarly require a qualifying ruling to find widespread, intentional voter fraud or vote manipulation, and they exclude procedural irregularities, administrative errors, and isolated rulings on individual cases of voter fraud [2]. The Polymarket rules define a ruling as a written order, judgment, opinion, or decision, including per curiam opinions, summary orders, and sua sponte rulings. Unwritten oral rulings, tentative rulings, settlements, orders to show cause, and other procedures that do not constitute a finalized ruling do not count [2]. The Kalshi rules state that the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The two contracts also use different dates. The Polymarket rules name December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as the ruling deadline, and its listed end time is January 1, 2027 at 04:59 UTC [2]. The Kalshi rules refer to rulings issued before January 1, 2027, and the saved market record lists an end date of January 8, 2027 at 15:00 UTC [1]. These are dates written in contract rules or market records. They do not describe an announced court schedule or a scheduled event.

Historical Context

The 2020 United States presidential election was held on November 3, 2020. The Democratic ticket of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris defeated the incumbent Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence, and Biden received more than 81 million votes [3]. The same article reports that the election had the highest voter turnout by percentage since 1900 [3]. A Wikipedia article on an FBI investigation describes a criminal inquiry into the 2020 elections conducted during the second Trump presidency [4]. The sources supplied do not describe any court ruling on whether fraud occurred, so this history does not indicate how either contract will resolve.

Frequently Asked Questions