Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The contracts in this snapshot come from one Polymarket event, "NJ-07 House Election Margin of Victory." Each market asks about a margin bracket for the Democratic or Republican candidate. The rules define margin of victory as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Independent candidates do not count as options for either party [1].

Resolution depends on the official count. The rules state that the market "will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official" [1]. If a value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket [1]. The rules also say that if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. That is a rule, not a forecast of when results will be known.

The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules state the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. Both are contract terms, not confirmed events.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-16T02:32:15.550Z. These are snapshot Yes prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

For Democratic brackets, the Yes prices run from 0.236 for "0%-3%" down to 0.0165 for "18% or more." For Republican brackets, the Yes prices are 0.0875 for "0%-3%," 0.0865 for "3%-6%," and 0.03 for "6% or more" [1]. The bracket wording differs by party. The Republican side is written as "6% or more" while the Democratic side has finer brackets through 18 percent. Compare each contract by its exact title and close time.

Because the saved sample lists 10 markets with no partial sample flag, all saved brackets are included [1]. The provider's warning, however, states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Do not infer that an absent bracket is cheaper or more likely. Do not average Democratic and Republican prices, or treat their brackets as one combined distribution.

What remains uncertain

This snapshot does not show why prices are where they are, how many traders hold each position, or how liquid any contract is. Volume is not liquidity or trader count. The evidence contains no recent news about the race and no record of how similar markets have performed. Prices from this snapshot should not be treated as current after the retrieval time.

References

1. Polymarket: NJ-07 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.