GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US new home sales for June

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US new home sales for June

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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8 markets tracked

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 520,000?

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Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 520,000?	Kalshi	96%
Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 540,000?	Kalshi	92%
Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 560,000?	Kalshi	85%
Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 580,000?	Kalshi	71%
Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 600,000?	Kalshi	51%
Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 620,000?	Kalshi	39%
Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 640,000?	Kalshi	28%
Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 660,000?	Kalshi	19%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

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About This Event

June 2026 If US new home sales, New Residential Sales, for June 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR, reported in thousands of homes, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US new home sales for June
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** June 2026

If US new home sales, New Residential Sales, for June 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR, reported in thousands of homes, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If US new home sales (New Residential Sales) for June 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR, reported in thousands of homes) is above 660,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 660,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 640,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 28.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 620,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 600,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 580,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 560,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 84.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 540,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 91.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 520,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 31, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US new home sales for June

Volume$0.00

Markets8

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KALSHI

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 520,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 520,000?

If US new home sales (New Residential Sales) for June 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR, reported in thousands of homes) is above 520,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 540,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 91.5¢No 8.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 540,000?

If US new home sales (New Residential Sales) for June 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR, reported in thousands of homes) is above 540,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 560,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 84.5¢No 15.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 560,000?

If US new home sales (New Residential Sales) for June 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR, reported in thousands of homes) is above 560,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 580,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 70.5¢No 29.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 580,000?

If US new home sales (New Residential Sales) for June 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR, reported in thousands of homes) is above 580,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 600,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 51.0¢No 49.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 600,000?

If US new home sales (New Residential Sales) for June 2026 (seasonally adjusted annual rate, SAAR, reported in thousands of homes) is above 600,000, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

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US new home sales for June

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Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 520,000?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

US new home sales for June

Markets (8)

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 520,000?

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 520,000?

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 540,000?

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 540,000?

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 560,000?

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 560,000?

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 580,000?

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 580,000?

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 600,000?

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 600,000?

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Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 520,000?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US new home sales for June

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 520,000?

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 520,000?

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 540,000?

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 540,000?

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 560,000?

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 560,000?

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 580,000?

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 580,000?

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 600,000?

Will US new home sales for June 2026 be above 600,000?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

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