BNB Up or Down - November 2, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
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BNB Up or Down - November 2, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 2, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-02T03:00:05.865Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied Polymarket event is titled "BNB Up or Down - November 2, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET" [1]. Its rule states that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rule specifies that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-11-02T17:45:00.000Z [1]. This is a contract closing time in the provider data. The supplied evidence does not show an actual resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-11-02T03:00:05.865Z, and the application retrieved the source at 2026-11-02T05:13:57.612Z [1]. The prices below describe the observation time, not a live reading at the time you read this.
The saved market lists two outcomes: "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They sum to 1.00, and the spread between them is 0.010 in the saved data. Because only one market is saved for this event, there is no comparison to other contracts here.
The supplied evidence has no volume or liquidity figures for this market, so it cannot be used to judge how actively it traded. Do not treat the price difference as an arbitrage opportunity or as evidence about the direction of BNB.
What remains uncertain
The sample is complete for this provider event: one of one market is included, and the partial sample flag is false [1]. The source states that the saved data "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1], but for this binary contract, only Up and Down appear.
The evidence does not explain why the prices stood where they did. It also does not include any later prices, news, or confirmation of how the contract settled. Readers comparing this contract with others should check each contract's own wording, because a different reference price, time window, or data source would change what each contract measures.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - November 2, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-02T03:00:05.865Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 2, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia contract is a short-term crypto market on the price of BNB, the asset tied to the BNB Chain, measured against the BNB/USD price feed. The event is titled "BNB Up or Down - November 2, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET" and sits in the Crypto category. Under the rules in the provider listing, the contract resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the 12:30PM to 12:45PM ET window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1]. The resolution source is named as Chainlink. Specifically, the rules point to the BNB/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval, and the provider states that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink data stream rather than any other source or spot market [1]. That distinction matters because a price shown on an exchange or another data feed may differ from the Chainlink TWAP used for settlement. The saved listing shows one outcome pair for this event: Up at a snapshot price of 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These figures were recorded at the observation time, not at the time of this article. They are snapshot prices from the provider record and are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. The listing shows the event as active, with a listed end time of 17:45 UTC on November 2, 2026, which corresponds to the close of the 12:45PM ET window [1]. The listed end time is the closing time for trading in the contract, and it is separate from the resolution itself. The saved record does not show a final resolution outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether BNB's Chainlink-based TWAP over a 15-minute window ends at or above its starting level. Because the measure is an average over the window rather than a single point-in-time price, the result depends on how the price moved throughout the interval, not only on the start and end values [1]. This makes the contract a narrow test of short-term direction under a specific data source. Its price moves are a market-based snapshot of how participants were pricing the Up and Down outcomes at the time of observation, and the provider record gives no explanation for those movements [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-02 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract resolves Up if the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP over the 12:30PM to 12:45PM ET window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which price source is used for settlement?
The resolution source is the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval. The rules state that other sources or spot markets are not used for this market [1].
What does the listed end time mean?
The provider lists the end time as 17:45 UTC on November 2, 2026, which corresponds to 12:45PM ET [1]. This is the close of the contract window and does not by itself show how the contract resolved.
Do the listed prices show the likelihood of an outcome?
The record shows Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 at the observation time [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.