Snapshot observed 2026-11-08T00:00:06.213Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The supplied event asks whether Duolingo Inc. will report a paid subscriber count above a given threshold in Q1 2027. Each market resolves to Yes if the company reports "Above X paid subscribers in Q1 2027" [1]. The six markets in this sample use thresholds of 13.6, 13.8, 14, 14.2, 14.4, and 14.6 million. Each threshold is a separate contract with its own price.

The rules say the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1]. The provider lists the status as active and the listed end time as not supplied in the excerpt [1]. The market records show an end date of 2027-08-31T20:00:00.000Z for all six contracts [1]. That is a listed close time in the provider data, not an announced reporting date. The supplied evidence does not say when Duolingo will report Q1 2027 results.

Reading the snapshot

The snapshot was observed at 2026-11-08T00:00:06.213Z and retrieved at 2026-11-08T03:01:42.719Z [1]. These prices describe that observation window only and should not be read as live quotes.

The Yes prices fall as the threshold rises: 0.695 at 13.6 million, 0.565 at 13.8 million, 0.435 at 14 million, 0.305 at 14.2 million, 0.195 at 14.4 million, and 0.125 at 14.6 million [1]. Within this snapshot, the market assigns a higher price to the lower thresholds. These values are not verified probabilities, and they are not executable prices.

The sample covers all six saved markets for this one provider event, with no partial sampling flagged [1]. The provider notes that this does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1]. Because all six contracts are from the same event, comparing them is a comparison of thresholds, not of different events.

Volume is not supplied in this evidence, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity or how many traders are involved.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are. It also does not include Duolingo's reported figures, company statements, or any news about subscriber counts. Current prices may differ from this snapshot.

The source is a single Kalshi event page. The page states that Kalshi is not affiliated with Duolingo [1]. No other platform's contract is supplied, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Differences in contract wording, close times, or thresholds on other platforms would need to be checked against their own rules before any comparison.

References

1. Kalshi: Duolingo paid subscribers in Q1 2027. Provider data observed 2026-11-08T00:00:06.213Z.