Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

Each contract in this snapshot asks whether Jahmyr Gibbs will reach a rushing-yard threshold in the 2026-27 NFL regular season. The rules state that the market "will resolve to "Yes" if the number of rushing yards Jahmyr Gibbs records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season equals or exceeds the listed number" [1]. If he does not play in the season "for any reason," the market resolves to "No" [1].

The rules also cover disruption. If the season is shortened or ends early, the outcome is determined "using available official data for completed games" [1]. If the season is cancelled, or is postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "50-50" [1]. The listed end time is 2027-01-27T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is a closing time for the contract, not an announced event date.

Resolution relies on "official information from the NFL," though "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1].

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T04:50:18.035Z [1]. These are point-in-time quotes, not current or executable prices. The five contracts are:

• 799.5+ yards: Yes 0.835, No 0.165
• 999.5+ yards: Yes 0.81, No 0.19
• 1,199.5+ yards: Yes 0.725, No 0.275
• 1,399.5+ yards: Yes 0.505, No 0.495
• 1,599.5+ yards: Yes 0.36, No 0.64

Each threshold is a separate contract. Yes prices fall as the threshold rises, which matches the rule that Yes requires reaching or exceeding the listed number. Because the thresholds differ, the prices should be read one contract at a time rather than blended into a single figure.

All five markets from this event are included, and the sample is not marked as partial [1]. The source notes, however, that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. A reader should not infer anything about thresholds that are not listed.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, and it does not show how many traders hold each position. It also contains no information about Gibbs's current status, injuries, or roster role. The prices are not verified probabilities, and they are not guaranteed fills. Differences between contracts should not be treated as arbitrage without checking the full terms, timing, and execution conditions on the platform.

References

1. Polymarket: Pro Football: Jahmyr Gibbs 2026-27 Regular Season Rushing Yards. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.