Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This snapshot covers one Polymarket contract, "BNB Up or Down - October 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET." The rules state that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The comparison is therefore between a TWAP over the window and the price at the window's start, not a single closing print.

The resolution source is the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a different BNB market should check whether that market uses the same data stream, window, and comparison rule.

The listed end time is 2026-10-28T06:15:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's closing time as listed by the provider. It is not evidence of when the outcome was determined or announced.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-27T11:37:37.609Z [1]. These are two different timestamps, and both are earlier than the current time of this response. The prices below describe the market at the observation time only.

At that observation, the saved prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The gap between them is small, and the two prices sum to 1.00 in this snapshot. The status was recorded as active at observation [1].

The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record shows 1 total market, 1 included, and no partial sample [1]. The saved data does not show trading volume, depth, or how many participants held each side, so no conclusion about liquidity or agreement can be drawn from it.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not show what the prices are now, whether they have changed since observation, or the BNB price at the start or during the window. It also does not explain why the prices stood where they did. No other platform's contract is included, so this snapshot cannot be compared with a contract on another platform, and a price difference between contracts would not by itself indicate an opportunity. The sampling note also states that the providers' listings "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The only outcome here is a binary Up or Down. The contract's resolution result is not in the supplied evidence.

References

1. Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z.